Thursday, December 24, 2009

If Jim Rice Scares You, John Olerud Should Make You Piss Yourself

A couple years back, Red Sox slugger Jim Rice got inducted into the Hall of Fame following a major press blitz by the Sox organization coming off the afterglow of their 2004 World Series Championship. There is something I need to admit up front: I have never seen Jim Rice play baseball. I have no idea what the man looks like. Furthermore, I have no interest in doing so. The man apparently got into the hall because someone working for Theo Epstein convinced the BBWAA that he was the Most Feared Hitter of His Generation, or Era, or something absolutely insane like that. As far as I can tell, Rice had a mediocre career in which he didn't do much of anything, really. That's not to say he was a bad player, mind you -- just that he was an .850 OPSing corner outfielder/designated hitter whose defensive measureables are woefully bad. You know, sort of like Luke Scott, just with fewer walks, a higher batting average, and a much longer career.

There's a statistic (actually, there's a bunch of statistics, but we'll only be using one) called WARP3 that Baseball Prospectus uses to give a concise overview of a player's cumulative career contributions to his team, as measured by advanced sabermetrics. The acronym -- yes, acronym, because you're supposed to say the stat like you're ordering the Starship Enterprise to gun it -- stand for Wins Above Replacement Player, level 3. You can find an explanation of how it returns the number it does here, but really all you need to know to understand this list is that the stat is cumulative across a player's entire career, takes both offense and defense into account, and the higher the number, the more you contributed during your time in Major League Baseball.

Without further ado, here is a list of selected players who have not been inducted into the Hall of Fame (or in the case of current or recently retired players, are currently not projected to make the Hall) that have higher career WARP3s than former Boston Red Stocking slugger Jim Rice.

Lou Whitaker -- 75.9
Willie Randolph -- 67.0
Robin Ventura -- 66.4
Kevin Brown -- 65.3
Larry Walker -- 62.4
Ron Cey -- 61.3
Andruw Jones -- 61.3
John Olerud -- 60.6
Bret Saberhagen -- 60.4
Matt Williams -- 58.6
Bernie Williams -- 57.3
Bobby Abreu -- 57.1
Carlos Beltran -- 57.1
Reggie Smith -- 56.1
Bobby Bonds -- 55.2
Paul O'Neill -- 55.0
Orel Hershiser -- 54.7
David Cone -- 53.9
Jay Bell -- 53.7
Albert Belle -- 53.3
Vladimir Guerrero -- 53.3
George Foster -- 52.8
Kenny Rogers -- 52.6
Bobby Bonilla -- 52.4
Jerry Koosman -- 51.9
Kenny Lofton -- 51.7
Jason Giambi -- 51.2
Graig Nettles -- 50.8
Miguel Tejada -- 50.8
Mike Cameron -- 50.7
David Wells -- 50.7
Andy van Slyke -- 50.4
Todd Helton -- 50.0
Rusty Staub -- 49.9
Frank Viola -- 49.8
Harold Baines -- 48.5
Ken Singleton -- 47.9
Omar Vizquel -- 47.8
Nomar Garciaparra -- 47.6
Jose Canseco -- 47.1
Gil Hodges -- 47.1
Ray Durham -- 46.9
Daryl Strawberry -- 46.9
Kevin Appier -- 46.7
Eric Davis -- 46.1
Roy White -- 45.5
John Franco -- 45.4
Jamie Moyer -- 45.4
Johnny Damon -- 45.3
Moises Alou -- 45.2
Julio Franco -- 45.0
Jimmy Key -- 44.8
Andy Pettitte -- 44.7
Dennis Martinez -- 44.4
Tim Salmon -- 44.2
Tom Gordon -- 44.1
Chuck Knoblauch -- 43.9
Steve Rogers -- 43.9
Chili Davis -- 43.8
Tommy Henrich -- 43.6
Mark Grace -- 43.0
Bret Boone -- 42.6
Devon White -- 42.6
Minny Minoso -- 42.5
Kevin Mitchell -- 42.5
Jason Kendall -- 42.2
Steve Finley -- 41.3
Ray Lankford -- 41.1
Tim Hudson -- 40.9
Kirk Gibson -- 40.8
Ellis Burks -- 40.2
J.D. Drew -- 40.2
Magglo Ordonez -- 39.7
Edgar Renteria -- 39.6
Javy Lopez -- 39.5
Boog Powell -- 39.4
Placido Polanco -- 39.0
Troy Glaus -- 38.9
Kent Hrbek -- 38.8
Jon Matlack -- 37.7
Tom Henke -- 36.8
Brad Radke --36.8
Reggie Sanders -- 36.7
Benito Santiago -- 36.6
Adrian Beltre -- 36.2
Tony Pena -- 36.1
Jose Rijo -- 35.8
Dusty Baker -- 35.7
Derek Lowe -- 35.7
Jesse Orosco -- 35.4
Alphonso Soriano -- 35.1
Jim Rice -- 34.2

Yes, that Jason Kendall.

I wouldn't put it past some of the other guys on this list to make it in eventually -- True Yankee Bernie Williams, for instance, has rings and New York Mystique to help his case -- but I very much doubt guys like Lowe and Glaus and Ellis Burks and Bobby Freaking Bonilla are ever getting in. After all, none of them were ever the Most Feared Whatever of Their Non-Specific Time Period (it should be noted that Barry Bonds, who actually was the most feared hitter of his generation and perhaps history, had more intentional walks in his 2004 season than Jim Rice had in his entire career).

And as for guys who didn't make this list, well, two stand out: David Ortiz (32.3) and Jason Varitek  (29.2). Sure, they could conceivably get over that hump if they played a few more years, but Ortiz was worth .5 last year, and Varitek worth 1.0, and with another year of wear and tear on their bodies, I wouldn't bet on it. Both men, however, will undoubtedly be going to the Hall of Fame. And you might start to hear about David Ortiz in particular that he was the Most Feared Hitter of His Generation. It'll be just as true of him as it was of Rice.

A lot of the names on this list were compiled with help from the girls and boys at the Something Awful Forums, who came up with this fun little game originally.

1 comment:

  1. Someone in the thread also mentioned John Olerud's insane '93 season.

    .363 / .473 / .599 for a 186 OPS+.

    Holy hell.

    ReplyDelete