Friday, December 18, 2009

And Now, a Quick Word on the Monsters in the Attic

There is one hard, inescapable truth the Baltimore Orioles will face in 2010:

The New York Yankees will be the best team in baseball.

And barring a catastrophic mixture of regressions, fall-offs, injuries, and outright derelictions of duty in the Bronx, it won't even be close.

Here is what we know about the 2010 New York Yankees, with their 2009 mentionables attached:

C Jorge Posada (133 OPS+)
1B Mark Teixiera (149 OPS+)
2B Robinson Cano (129 OPS+)
SS Derek Jeter (132 OPS+)
3B Alex Rodriguez (147 OPS+)
LF Curtis Granderson (100 OPS+)
CF Brett Gardner (93 OPS+)
RF Nick Swisher (129 OPS+)
DH Nick Johnson (122 OPS+)

Team UZR/150: -4.9 -- but trading Johnny Damon (-12.1 in LF) for Curtis Granderson (27.2 in LF)

C.C. Sabathia (3.82 xFIP)
A.J. Burnett (3.67 xFIP)
Andy Pettitte (3.69 xFIP)
Joba Chamberlain (3.88 xFIP)
Phil Hughes (4.25 xFIP)

I could calculate the xFIP of the bullpen, but suffice it to say they were something like the best or second-best bullpen in baseball last year in terms of runs allowed, either behind or directly ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, depending on you who count as a starter and who you count as a reliever.

They're sick. Unworldly. Even if Posada, Jeter, and Pettitte hit the wall -- and Posada and Jeter almost certainly will not -- they still have the best lineup in baseball. As far as defense goes, Jeter's learned in his mid-thirties how to play to his left side, which he can do, because he's Derek Fucking Jeter, and they've replaced defensive black hole Johnny Damon with a guy who should be starting in center for the Detroit Tigers, but apparently Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski looks to faces of the franchise first when finding guys to ship out for salary reasons.

The rotation is perhaps the sixth-best in baseball next year, if everyone in every rotation stays healthy, which they won't -- I'd put them behind St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Florida, and either the Detroit Tigers or the Chicago White Sox, depending on how I'm feeling about their back of the rotation guys, in no particular order. The Atlanta Braves might have a legitimate claim, too. But that's it. Boston isn't as good, Philadelphia's five are horrendously front-loaded, and pretty much everyone else has a weakness somewhere -- but if Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes pitch the way they should, as Major League starters free of hard innings caps and stints in the bullpen, that rotation will be dominant. And even then, it's very likely that by the time spring training starts, Ben Sheets will be a Yankee as well. You know, just in case anyone gets hurt.

So, the hope is that the Yankees are unlucky, panicky, boorish, and dumb; that the kids stay in the pen, Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady take starts away from Gardner and Swisher, Pettitte, Posada, and Jeter fall off their respective cliffs, and they get so BAbip'd to death in April and May that they insist on trading prospects and good, undervalued pieces for guys with low playoff ERAs or great pinch-hitting averages. The only team that can defeat the New York Yankees next year is the New York Yankees -- and everyone else in the East, Baltimore included, had better hope Girardi, Cashman, Steinbrenner, and the Post are up to the challenge.

4 comments:

  1. So what you're saying is....Yankees rule?

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  2. No, Leonora. That's not what I'm saying. That's not what I'm saying at all!!

    Also I realize I forgot to mention Mariano Rivera in the above post, and seeing as he's arguably one of the ten best pitchers of all time across era and role, and will still be elite in 2010, I should take this opportunity to mention I hope the entire league goes Diamondbacks on his ass.

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  3. I hope they all get painful herpes outbreaks. Especially Jeter and their douchebag first baseman.

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  4. Like rooting for Exxon to beat Microsoft.

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