Useless Lineup Masturbation

Because right now, there's not much else to do.

Let's pretend this is your day-in, day-out Orioles starting roster for 2010:

2B Roberts
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Scott
1B Reimold
3B Atkins
C Wieters
LF Pie
SS Izturis

Obvious assumptions involve moving Nolan Reimold to first base due to Brandon Snyder not being ready in spring training and Andy MacPhail not making anymore free agent signings of note; it's possible either Michael Aubrey or Ty Wigginton have a good camp and win this job to start the year, but I don't think it's that likely. Garrett Atkins could also play first and they could put someone else, another free agent signing or possibly a non-roster invitee who distinguishes himself, at third base, but I doubt that happens either. If Pie doesn't get traded they should commit to playing him everyday in either left or center; he's too valuable to pigeonhole as a fourth outfielder at his age.

Either way, using the Lineup Analysis tool over at BaseballMusings.com, this lineup (using last year's numbers) creates about 4.91 runs per game. The tool uses on-base percentage (they call it on-base average over there) and slugging percentage and plugs them into a formula and obviously, the higher the number, the better. For reference, the 2010 Kansas City Royals look to create 4.31 runs per game, and the 2010 New York Yankees will be putting up about 6.16 runs an outing, both of which sound pretty much spot on. Maybe the KC number is a bit high, but it never hurts to be optimistic.

But what if we don't use last year's numbers, and instead fool around with possibilities a little bit? Garrett Atkins put up a .308 OBP/.342 SLG last year in Colorado, but CHONE projects he'll rebound to a .326/.410 guy -- still not great (or even that good), but enough that if everything else stays the same, the O's lineup breaks the five-run barrier, if barely: 5.01 runs per game. If we use the Bill James numbers (.353/.448), that goes up to 5.10 runs. I wouldn't bet on a .801 OPS out of Atkins, though it would be nice.

Markakis had a down year last year, too -- after posting increases in every offensive metric over the last three years, he regressed on just about every single one of them. The most worrying of these was his BB%, something that's hard to explain away with lingering injuries or bad luck, but he should see a rebound across the board unless there's something seriously wrong with him that hasn't been disclosed, which is unlikely. If we add in Markakis's CHONE numbers, the team's runs per game go up to 5.18. The Bill James numbers (.374/.481) are similar enough that using them won't change things much, so we won't bother.

We can keep substituting these CHONE projections and eventually come out with a 5.31 with that same lineup; the system sees Roberts and Scott regressing a slight bit and the young guys like Wieters, Jones, and Reimold get better. The numbers don't mean much right now because they don't reflect anything that's happened in reality, but considering they represent a marked increase over last year's 4.77 runs per game, they're welcome comfort regardless.

An interesting side note is that if we slot in Robert Andino, the current utility infielder/backup shortstop behind Izturis, the exact number of runs per game increases from 5.306 to 5.311. Andino, who was acquired from the Florida Marlins for pitcher Hayden Penn, probably has little chance of wrestling the starter's job from Izturis barring an injury or major regression on Cesar's part.

Of course, this all goes out the window if the O's do something nuts like trade for an Adrian Gonzalez or sign a Matt Holliday, but there's not much chance of that happening right now.