Out of Left Field

Yes, "Out of Left Field." En garde, Kubatko.

The topic of what exactly to do with the Orioles outfield, particularly Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie, in 2010 is something that Baltimore's fans and front office have been debating since last September. My proposal is not unique -- I mean there's only five or six things they could do total, and that includes bringing back Brady Anderson to play left -- but I think it's easily the best of the choices available and I want to work through the thought process behind it before we do something stupid like trade Pie for a soft-hitting, mediocre third baseman.

For reference, here's the rundown on the guys who are in the mix for playing time in the out there in 2010, sorted generally by position:

Adam Jones:  519 PA of .277/.335/.457 (.792 OPS) for 106 OPS+, .308 BAbip, 2.8 UZR/150 (CF), 6.9 UZR/150 (LF)
Felix Pie: 281 PA of .266/.326/.437 (.763 OPS) for 99 OPS+, .309 BAbip, 8.3 UZR/150 (CF), 15.3 UZR/150 (LF)

Nick Markakis: 711 PA of .293/.347/.453 (.801 OPS) for 109 OPS+, .317 BAbip, 3.5 UZR/150 (RF)

Nolan Reimold: 411 PA of .279/.365/.466 (.831 OPS) for 117 OPS+, .320 BAbip, -17.3 UZR/150 (LF)
Luke Scott: 506 PA of .258/.340/.488 (.828 OPS) for 115 OPS+, .284 BAbip, 7.4 UZR/150 (LF)
Lou Montanez: 208 PA of .247/.285/.376 (.661 OPS) for 73 OPS+, .286 BAbip, -10.3 UZR/150 (LF)

Offensive numbers are for 2009; UZR/150 is cumulative, since that stat takes awhile to be predictive. Note that for Montanez, I combined his 2008 and 2009, due to him only having 91 PAs in the majors last year, where he hit an abysmal .183/.244/.280.

When discussing the future of the Baltimore outfield, the first thing to note is that the O's have a problem going into 2010 that not many clubs face: they have two potential starting-quality centerfielders. A lot of clubs out there -- the Padres, Royals, Cubs, and Braves immediately come to mind -- are looking for just one. We're defining "potential starting-quality centerfielder" here as someone who provides a defensive premium at the position and comes with a bat that's worth that premium; for instance, DeWayne Wise of last year's White Sox team had the fielding chops for the spot, but was a black hole with the bat, his OPS a shade over .600. Meanwhile on the other side of town, the Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome put up a .796 OPS, which is respectable for a centerfielder, but had an atrocious -20.3 UZR/150. The New York Yankees now have two starting centerfielders in Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson, and the Boston Red Sox might think they do as well, but really don't -- Mike Cameron is legit, but Jacoby Ellsbury isn't. He's just fast.

The consensus starter in center for the Orioles, Adam Jones, may have won a Gold Glove for his outfield play last year, but UZR didn't like him much at all (-4.1 UZR/150); however, he had a great year in center the year before, his career numbers there are positive, and he's only 23 and getting better. Jones had an absolutely nutty start to the year at the plate in 2009 (1.062 OPS in March/April, .960 OPS in May), but fell off hard the rest of the year due to a combination of injuries and going from a BAbip near .400 to one around .270. When he did get hurt, that gave Felix Pie, a former highly-touted Chicago Cubs prospect who the Orioles got for dirt cheap in the 2008-2009 offseason, the chance to get near-regular playing time in center. Pie had about half the plate appearances of Jones last year, but look at his first and second half splits:

1st half: 119 PA of .234/.299/.355 (.654 OPS)
2nd half: 162 PA of .290/.346/.497 (.842 OPS)

Buried in that second half was an August about as crazy as Jones's April, when he posted a 1.045 OPS with 5 HR and a triple. The triple came in an August 14th night game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, where Pie became only the fourth Oriole in franchise history to hit for the cycle. The others? Cal Ripken, Brooks Robinson, and Aubrey Huff. True Orioles, all of them. Not even kidding; Huff's 2008 "horseshit town" radio appearance and the season that followed made him one of my favorite Orioles. I still kind of hope we re-sign him for cheap.

So the question becomes, who do you put out there as the starter? The sure-thing guy you got from the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard, or the reclamation project out of Chicago who everyone thought was more or less done in the majors? Do you let them fight it out in Spring Training? Do you trade one? If so, who?

Pie's a year older than Jones, and while it's a bit early to say that he's going to be the kind of player going forward that a glance at his 2009 would indicate, his trade value will probably never be higher than it is right now. That's why if the offer is right, MacPhail should deal Pie -- not because he's blocked by Jones in center, but because the market is likely overvaluing him. Bill James thinks his stat line next year is going to be about the same as it was overall this year, and he's usually optimistic in his predictions. If Pie can be the centerpiece of a deal that brings a young, cost-controlled power bat to the Orioles infield or designated hitter position, then MacPhail should thank him for all he's done and send him on his way.

If not -- if no one is willing to overpay for Pie -- then the Orioles should keep him and start him. And start Jones, too. The most graceful solution to the logjam in center is not to platoon the two guys, or trade one, or relegate one to fourth outfielder; it's to put Adam Jones in left.

This is where Nolan Reimold comes in. Reimold was a worthy candidate for AL Rookie of the Year last season, and arguably should have gotten it, considering the number of offensive categories he led the league's rookies in over 2009. However, he was hurt for a good deal the last couple months of the season with a frayed Achilles tendon that he played through (due to his RoY campaign, no doubt) and his defense in left field was atrocious. The two are undoubtedly related, as the Achilles injury robbed Reimold of a lot of his speed and acceleration, and the fact remains that even if we don't consider the injury, there's only one year of UZR out there to judge Reimold on. It's not even a full year -- he didn't come up until halfway through May, and wasn't the everyday starter in left at any point in the season, since he was splitting time with Felix Pie (whose defense in left is absolutely elite, but wasted, and he doesn't have the bat to carry the position) and then was hurt.

Next year, a healthy Reimold in left could be, well, anything. He was supposed to have average defense out there, but scouts are notoriously bad at evaluating prospect defense and how it translates to the majors. He could turn out to be a Markakis-like solid player; he could turn out to be a guy like Luke Scott, whose defense every announcer and casual fan hate but whose stats show as a decent contributor there. He could turn out to be terrible. Adam Jones, on the other hand, is already an average defensive centerfielder, and there's no good reason why that shouldn't translate to above-average to elite defense in left field, as it has for most other centerfielders who move over that way.

But if Adam Jones moves to left, Reimold has to move somewhere else, because Nick Markakis isn't going anywhere in right, and nor should he. The two most likely places to put him are first base and designated hitter. Reimold's never played first, at least not since 2001 when he joined the Orioles' organization; he's never played infield at all in that time. First base is considered the easiest of the infield positions to play, but that doesn't mean that Reimold, or anyone, can just pick it up in spring training and be good to go to start the season. And on the other hand, Reimold's 2009 doesn't have the offensive value you want out of your DH -- but he tore up AAA pitching in Norfolk before his call up, and he's only 25, with his power still developing. Bill James thinks he's going to put up a .373 OBP and a .524 SLG next year, which even for Bill James is ludicrously over the top. If he's right and Reimold puts up a .900 or so OPS, yeah, he'll be good at DH or first or really wherever the Orioles want to play him. Something like .860 is more realistic, I think, and if that's the case, the Orioles should keep Luke Scott at DH and try Reimold out at first, since Scott has publicly griped about not wanting to learn how to play first base anyway.

The second question is whether Adam Jones's bat is worth it in left field. David Golebiewski at RotoGraphs seems to think it's going to be more than worth it in center, and particularly notable are Jones's lowered strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and higher power output. The CHONE and ZiPS projection systems give him around a .280/.340/.475 line, which is fine for left field if it comes true, especially considering his defense. That .895 slugging percentage on flyballs mentioned in the article is most likely unsustainable, but there's no reason for it to crater. If he eventually matures into a .900 OPS player, that makes him an excellent left fielder as opposed to an elite centerfielder. If Jones can take the ego bruise that comes from moving off the premium outfield defensive position in favor of Pie, then the Orioles should go ahead and move him, and see how it works out. If Pie falls off or someone is willing to overpay for him at the 2010 deadline, Jones can move right back to center.

Meanwhile, this gives the Orioles remarkable defense across the outfield without sacrificing Reimold's bat or Pie's fielding, perhaps solves the question at first base, and gives Lou Montanez a chance to stick as the O's fourth outfielder -- another ex-Cub prospect, Montanez isn't really learning anything new in the minors, is in his prime, put up a .900 OPS in AAA last year, and can spell Markakis and whoever's playing left every now and again. The UZR metrics on him aren't kind, but also cover a total of 59 games, so who really knows on that end.

The one position not really touched on above is Nick Markakis in right; there's no real option to displace him and he's going to be there for awhile, having just signed a 6 year, $66 million deal with the Orioles. However, his 2009 was concerning -- it showed wholesale regression at the plate and in the field, from a large dip in OBP and a hit in UZR, though his power numbers remained the same. The thought is that he'll have a better year next year, especially defensively, but Orioles fans should come to grips with the idea that his ridiculous 99 BB age 24 season is likely the outlier, not his 56 BB in 2009. And if he splits the difference in 2010, he'll still be one of the better young right fielders in the league.