Ripken Is 8

Series Review: BAL @ TB, 4/1-4/3

2011-04-03T18:07:00.001-04:00

I think this is the format I'm going to use for baseball bloggin' this year, instead of trying to do it by every game or whatever. There are much more popular, better-designed websites for you to get that information from. SB Nation's Camden Chat, for instance, has very nice dailies. This will more be a detailed overview of the series as its own unit of baseball storytelling. Every other sport reserves them for the playoffs (except the occasional home-and-home in hockey), but I like the thin veneer of narrative they bring. Still a pretty useless sample size, of course.

Without further ado...

April 1st, 2011 -- Orioles 4, Tampa Bay 1

Opening Day was kind to the Orioles, as it was the last time Jeremy Guthrie threw it for them -- in 2009, he took the mound against the New York Yankees at home on a dismal April afternoon, drizzly and cold and windy. Orioles fans didn't mind much because Baltimore defeated the Yankees 6-3 and Guthrie got the win. In 2008, he was also the Opening Day pitcher, also in Camden Yards but facing the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and got the loss.

He didn't get the nod last year, which turned out to be another loss to Tampa Bay (ha ha ha Kevin Millwood) but he got his chance for revenge this season and made the most of it: 8 IP, 3H, 6K, 1BB, 0R. David Price for the Rays looked more impressive early, but Guthrie sustained his performance longer and had movement on his pitches that wasn't always there last year. Guthrie has gotten some flak over the past couple years for being the "ace" on a team whose starting pitching was so poor that Steve Trachsel was once a legitimate #3, which is not something he's ever really deserved. He doesn't draft or sign the other guys in the rotation. So it's always good to see him do well.

Price started strong but flagged a bit down the stretch, allowing 4 ER over seven innings, and that was all the Orioles needed. Guthrie wasn't allowed to go for the complete game, which was fine considering his pitch count was over 100 and he'd allowed his first walk the inning before, and bringing in Jim Johnson was the right move to preserve a four run lead. Of course, Ben Zobrist lined his first pitch high over the right field wall to immediately nix the shutout, but it was still the right move. Perhaps Jim wasn't aware that you can't get the save if you're responsible for working into a save situation. Johnson got the next three guys to end the game.

April 2nd, 2011 -- Orioles 3, Tampa Bay 1

Brian Matusz was supposed to start the second game of the year for the Orioles, but over the preceding week he strained the intercostal muscle in his back and was scratched, and now resides on the 15 Day DL. So Chris Tillman got the start and it went about as well as anyone could have possibly imagined; Tillman threw six innings of no-hit ball with three walks and five strikeouts. He spent a lot of pitches doing so, however, and Jeremy Accardo came in to pitch the seventh and promptly gave up a single to Bossman, Jr., Upton. Upton, by the by, was one of two Rays this series who actually put the ball in play with positive results: 4 hits in 11 PA, two doubles and two singles, and two strikeouts. The other guy, Ben Zobrist, has already appeared once and will again...

...but before that, Joe Maddon indulged in matchups. Rays starter James Shields entered the eighth inning working on a shutout, then allowed Mark Reynolds to reach on a single. The next batter was Matt Wieters, and he would ground out to second -- but Reynolds had gone on the pitch to stay out of the double play and the Rays' only play was to first. Incidentally, I think that's the first time I've seen that particular bit of managerial bravado actually work. J.J. Hardy then walked on five pitches, and that was it for Shields; Joe Maddon decided to make a pitching change with the lineup rolling over and Brian Roberts coming up to bat.

Maddon's choice: Jake McGee, a young left-handed relief pitcher. McGee has good stats in a very, very small sample size, and no noticeable platoon split at the MLB level, which means if you're playing matchups, he's not much of a known quantity. So you look at the batters he'll be facing next: Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. There is no beneficial lefty on lefty matchup here. Roberts is a switch-hitter and, predictably, when he walked up to the plate, he moved from the left side to the right, where he OPS's around .780 over the last couple of years against left-handed pitching. Presumably McGee would be left in to face Markakis, as no one was warming in the pen, which would give Maddon a nice lefty-on-lefty matchup...except Nick Markakis can actually hit lefties. He hit .361/.414/.492 against them last year, in fact. And I suppose Maddon can't be faulted for leaving him in to face Markakis, because Nicky struck out.

A few pitches earlier, however, Roberts had smashed a no-doubter over the left field wall, and the Orioles led 3-0.

The bottom of the eighth was vintage 2010 Orioles bullpen: Mike Gonzalez comes on, throws nine straight balls to put men on 1st and 2nd with none out, induces a pop-up and is yanked. Uehara comes in and retires the side with a strikeout and a weak grounder to first, but not before one of the inherited runner scores on a dribbler past Hardy at short.

The top of the ninth was quick and forgettable, and then Kevin Gregg took the mound. This season I'll be keeping track of something I call the Kevin Gregg Hat Trick: 1 hit, 1 walk, and 1 strikeout recorded in a three-out save situation. He can get the other two outs however he desires, and can allow more than the above (he can in fact theoretically record 3 Kevin Gregg Hat Tricks in 1 save appearance; the Ovechtrick of high-maintenance closing, if you will).

Gregg came in and immediately gave up a hit to BJ Upton, then got Joyce to ground into a fielder's choice to erase Upton and leave Joyce on first. Then he walked Kelly Shoppach and struck out Elliot Johnson, giving Gregg his first KGHT of the season...but leaving men on first and second with two away.

Which brings us back to Ben Zobrist. Entering the batter's box, Zobrist had two hits and two walks in nine appearances at the plate. One of those hits was the home run from the previous night's ballgame; his first at-bat this go-round was a pop-up, and his second a fly ball to Markakis in right. The last time he was seen in the bottom of the seventh, he walked. Not so this time. On Gregg's 17th pitch of the inning, Zobrist turns on a tepid fastball over the middle of the plate and sends it screaming towards the high wall in right field. Off the bat it looks like a home run, but it sinks quickly as Markakis retreats at a full run to the point where it seems like it will be 'merely' a game-tying double -- until Markakis jumps up and catches it cleanly as he slams full-on into the right field wall. The MASN feed cuts to the mound, where Kevin Gregg jubilantly fist-pumps at having technically retired the side.

April 3rd, 2011 -- Orioles 5, Tampa Bay 1

The Orioles had already won the series going into Sunday's game, but due to Matusz's injury, Orioles pitching prospect Zach Britton had been called up to make his MLB debut. Britton, the organization's top prospect, had by all rights deserved to make the team out of camp but for service time reasons was slated to spend the first month of the season at AAA Norfolk. The Orioles elected to promote him rather than have a bullpen day or bring in a spot starter, and while it may have cost them a year of team control, Britton delivered: 6 IP, 0R, 3H, 3BB, 6K. His fastball sat 91-92 with wicked late movement down and away and his breaking stuff was essentially unhittable. Most of the time that was because hitters didn't offer at it -- he had problems with location in the middle innings and couldn't get much of his offspeed stuff over for strikes -- but when they did, they didn't make contact.

Wade Davis started for the Rays and had a good game, but the Orioles abused the left field line in the top of the seventh -- after Wieters led off with a single to right, Adam Jones hit a hard single down the left field line, moving Wieters up to second. Mark Reynolds followed with a sinking liner that also skipped fair, bringing Wieters home, moving Jones to third and allowing Reynolds to reach second with a double. Felix Pie grounded out to short, holding the runners, but then J.J Hardy came up and pulled another ball about the same place as Jones and Reynolds, bringing both of them in and giving the Orioles a 3-0 lead. Then the O's pushed their luck, as Markakis hit a fourth base hit to left but Hardy was sent home and gunned down easily at the plate.

The game was never really in question after that; Berken came in and struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh, and Jim Johnson and Josh Rupe handled the eighth and ninth as the Orioles added a pair of insurance runs to secure a 5-1 victory and a series sweep.

Bird Notes

- J.J. Hardy has been the Orioles' starting shortstop for three games and he's already the best at the position since Tejada's first season in Baltimore. He's got pop, he can take a walk, he can field, he can throw -- if he can stay healthy, I have a feeling MacPhail is going to lock him down long-term. And probably overpay, but let's be honest, he was just going to use that money on another Type A reliever anyway.

- Orioles starting pitching in the series: 20.0 IP, 1R, 6H, 7BB, 17K. I doubt anyone was expecting that.

- Lost in the overall remarkable play of the team is that Vladimir Guerrero looks absolutely lost at the plate; he's got two weak singles in 12 PA, no walks, and three strikeouts. He's chasing even more than usual and looks puzzled he's not connecting. Hopefully he turns it around soon.

- With Josh Rupe starting the ninth on the mound, Kevin Gregg started to warm in the pen. There have been some complaints about how this contradicts the mantra Showalter keeps repeating on his MASN spots about how he doesn't much care for saves, but I'm of the mind that if you're asking Kevin Gregg to get you three or fewer outs without giving up two or more runs, statistically you'll get your positive outcome at least 95% of the time, and any meaningless counting stat that pads that man's trade value is fine with me. As long as Uehara or whoever's pitching well in the pen is used in actual high leverage situations, I don't care what's happening with the closer job.

The Throughline

The Orioles are off to their first 3-0 start since 1997 -- the last year the Orioles had a winning season, the last year the Orioles made the playoffs, and the Year of Maier. The Rays start 0-3 for the first time in their franchise history. The takeaway? Three games in April still don't mean much. More interesting is how the Orioles handle the somewhat higher-powered offense but less impressive pitching of the Detroit Tigers in their first season series at Camden Yards. They currently sit alone in first place atop the American League East.

Spring Training Thoughts: Week One

2011-03-06T00:36:00.002-05:00

Well, sort of week one. Pitchers and catchers actually reported circa the second week of February, but they weren't really doing anything for our benefit until the last few days. This is by no means a comprehensive rundown, because you have The Internet for that, and I (like most of you, I'd wager) still haven't gotten a chance to actually see these dudes in action, so I'm mostly spreadsheeting from my mother's basement here. But nonetheless, some thoughts below the jump.

Mark Reynolds -- The three true outcome king continues his tyranny. Reynolds' "first at-bat as an Oriole" -- with the caveats that it was not a statistically recorded at-bat, took place in an intersquad game, and came at the expense of Oriole name wunderkind Chorye Spoone -- resulted in a grand slam. He's been somewhat rubbish since then, but most people love that grand slam. No one really seems to mention it was just the opening salvo against Spoone, one of the Orioles' top pitching prospects now that Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman have graduated, and signaled the beginning of what's been a disappointing spring for him so far. But this is the Mark Reynolds entry! He's having a pretty bad spring so far against actual opposing pitchers. Grounding into double plays, striking out, the usual. Means nothing, of course, but be sure you'll see more of it.

Vladimir Guerrero -- Vlad's playing like a dude who's being paid eight million dollars, even if three million of it is deferred. Then again the Orioles paid Aubrey Huff to OPS+ around 80 every other season for about that much, so we'll take our victories where they come. Guerrero has a dinger or two, an RBI double today against the Sox, and generally looks like he'll be ready for the season. I don't think anyone was worried about.

Nolan Reimold -- Reimold's plate discipline is back, and it's looking like his power is returning too. Had three walks and a homer his first game against the Rays; hit a three run blast against the Tigers yesterday. I'm sure he's just trying not to get sent down so he can put up a .220/.400/.370 line in a utility role. Well, that's a bit harsh; there's no real room for him on this team right now, but if he turns it on, and he actually proves he can consistently hit major league pitching and stay healthy, they'll find places to play him. For instance...

Derrek Lee -- ...this guy isn't healthy yet. And he suffered another setback. FORMER CUBS!

Chorye Spoone -- Spoone has missed generous time the past two years with injuries, and spent a good portion of last year sidelined with shoulder issues in Double A Bowie. He's not had the best spring so far, giving up two runs on three hits a couple days ago against the Twins and the aforementioned Mark Reynolds grand slam, but it's spring and he's not expected to be a part of the Orioles' plans this year. Might get a look in the bullpen later on if he impresses.

Nick Markakis -- Nicky is slugging bombs left and right. Save some for the season, if you would. Markakis getting back to his 2007 form would be nice; he won't be getting as many IBB and "unintentional intentional" walks this year, since he won't be the only guy not named Luke Scott in the lineup with an ounce of plate discipline and power.

J.J. Hardy -- Looks nice so far, performing like he should. Hopefully he stays healthy.

Zach Britton -- Kid had a self-admitted case of the butterflies his first spring appearance against the Phillies, but he didn't do badly at all: 2 IP, 2 hits, 1 K, no runs allowed. I am also informed he struck out the one they call Ryan Howard, First Baseman, Pre-Eminent Slugger, the Man of One Hundred and Twenty-Five Million Despairs. Maybe he should begin the year in Baltimahahahaha no, that would be insane. Britton is a good bet for a mid-season call up if he continues to impress in Norfolk in April and May, however.

Felix Pie -- From all reports, he continues to be very fast with little plate discipline and hints of Figuring It All Out. Hopefully this will continue as the team's fourth outfielder.

Adam Jones -- Haven't heard much about him, actually. Probably not a good sign. Still, it's just spring.

Brian Matusz -- He had a solid debut. I'm not worried about him.

The Bullpen -- Honestly, I can't find it in my heart to be interested in how relief pitchers are faring in Spring Training, not even for a bullshit blog post to prove I'm still alive and watching baseball.

Matt Wieters -- He's gotten some hits. We'll see how he fares when the games start counting. And really, when you think about it, I could have just written this for all these guys and it would have been just as sensible.

Except Craig Tatum. Enjoy AAA Norfolk, Craig.

Vladdition by Subtraction

2011-02-05T23:44:00.005-05:00

Yeah, that's right. "Vladdition."

Since the signing of outfielder Vladimir Guerrero yesterday there's been a not-inconsiderable amount of (g)rumbling about the real losers of the Guerrero deal: Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie. Twenty-four hours ago, one of these two men was likely the starting left-fielder for the Orioles out of Spring Training, and the other was the MLB roster's utility outfielder. With the arrival of Vlad, Luke Scott will be vacating the designated hitter position and moving into left, meaning one of those two is now the utility guy (likely Pie, because he can play center pretty well to spell Adam Jones and OPS around league average for that position with a bit of power) and one of them is starting in AAA Norfolk (condolences, Nolan).

The excellent SBNation blog Camden Chat has been one of the battlegrounds for this particular aspect of the debate (we're going to set aside the issue of money and how much we really should care, considering it's Peter Angelos's and it probably wasn't going to do anything useful for the franchise anyway), with the two sides lining up roughly as follows:

The Vladimir Guerrero signing adds a marginal but fairly known number of wins to the Orioles offense and, though it negatively impacts the defense by forcing Luke Scott to play the field most days, is not going to hamstring the Orioles on or off the field. Reimold/Pie will still get ample opportunities to prove themselves, as they should considering their past performance.
The Vladimir Guerrero signing deprives Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie of the opportunity to develop into Major League caliber starting outfielders by giving plate appearances to an aging veteran on a one-year deal who, barring a mid-season deal, does nothing to help the future of the Baltimore franchise in a year where the Orioles are not expected by any metric or analyst to contend.

Both sides have their merits. I fall in with the former of the two.

I say this despite being one of the biggest Felix Pie fans in the world and as someone who very much enjoyed watching Reimold play in 2009. Now that Vlad is on the team -- and again, putting aside his contract and the wisdom of signing him to it in the two-thousand and eleventh Year of Our Lord -- he is clearly the designated hitter until he proves otherwise by means of performance or injury, and Luke Scott is clearly the starting left-fielder until he proves otherwise by the same.

That's because Luke Scott and Vlad Guerrero have demonstrated they can start in the Major Leagues, and Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold have not.

By the time the season begins, Pie will be 26 years old and Reimold will be 27 and they will have accrued some 1418 Major League plate appearances between them. They are no longer prospects. Pie was a reclamation project from the Chicago Cubs, who rushed him into the majors and generally handled his development as poorly as they possibly could in any given situation. He made his first appearance in 2007; last year was the first time he ever broke 300 plate appearances in a season. As a Cub a certain amount of this was due to mishandling by their front office -- hey there, Andy -- but Pie has always had an issue staying healthy, and though durability isn't a traditional scouting tool, there's a good case that it should be. Pie was always a toolbox player with poor baseball instincts offset by his amazing measurables, but on the Major League level he's no longer physically outclassing the competition like he did in the minor leagues and even when he's healthy, the man just cannot get on base to save his career. His on-base percentage hovers a tick over .300 across his entire career -- .305 last year -- and his average maybe .020 below that most of the time. The theory is that he can salvage his numbers by slugging well, but his SLG% was .413 last year and even the .437 mark from the year before is dangerously low; you simply cannot credibly put a guy with a .720 to .760 OPS in left field and call him a Major League starter.

Now, you might be able to put him in center field, but that's been discussed before; there's a younger guy with higher upside, a better bat and more years left of team control there already, and he's proven he can stay healthy. Pie is probably better defensively in center -- UZR has good things to say about him both there and in left -- but he's a good defensive centerfielder, not an elite one. He doesn't have good ball instincts and still makes poor decisions when choosing his routes. At age 26, it's high time that we amateur scouts just accept that this is how Felix plays ball and move on. Jones-Pie-Markakis could be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, but the production that Scott-Jones-Markakis gives you (with Vlad as DH) is probably going to win more ballgames.

Pie, however, blows just about every other fourth outfielding option the Orioles have out of the water (I believe we employed the ghost of Joey Gathright for a time in that position last year). He can play all three outfield positions and he's a servicable Major League hitter. Lots of teams would love to have a guy with his numbers from last year on their bench and some of them would settle for him as their starter in center on Opening Day.

Which brings us to a man with all sorts of promise countermanded by one line:

.207/.282/.328

That is what Nolan Reimold, allegedly healthy after an offseason of surgury and rehab and a full spring of baseball, did in the Major Leagues last year.

I don't care about context. I really don't. Nolan had a number of issues last year that affected his performance, some of which are relevant to baseball (playing through a torn Achilles tendon for the last half of the 2009 season) and some of which are not. But everyone had a number of issues last year that affected his performance. Everyone has a story. As far as I know, Reimold never made any excuses for his performance, and he certainly doesn't owe me or any other jackass on the internet an explanation for anything. But if for whatever reason Reimold wasn't fit to be playing baseball, then he shouldn't have been playing baseball. Otherwise, the numbers are the numbers.

And the numbers are not very good. In fact, the only positive thing about them is that they only came in 131 plate appearances and represent a very small sample size. His AAA line is a little better: .249/.364/.374 in 401 PA. His discipline is still there on both levels. But in 2010, he could not hit Major League pitching, and didn't fair too much better against minor league pitching. .249 is six points lower than he hit as a 24 year old in A ball seeing professional fastballs for the first time (incidentally, he OBP'd .379). It's thirty-five points lower than any full-season line he's put up since -- and this is forgiving the MLB plate appearances where he hit just above .200.

All this is to say that Nolan Reimold has a lot of work to do before the Orioles start making free agency signing decisions around him. He wasn't the club's starting left-fielder before Vlad signed. He wasn't even a lock to make the major league squad. He's entering his year 27 season essentially starting from scratch, and barring an unforseen injury he'll be doing so in AAA Norfolk, and that's how it should be. The temptation to slot him into left field for the Next Great Orioles Baseball Team at some point in the nebulous near-future is understandable, but should be resisted. Reimold first needs to demonstrate he still belongs on a major league team at all.

The general counter-argument to Vlad bumping one of these guys to the bench and the other to Norfolk is that they could get better, markedly better, and better enough that either man's emergence coupled with Adam Jones's progression might give the Orioles a top five outfield in baseball. That's a nice thought, and it's certainly a thing that could happen. But it's not something to shape your offseason around. When you can sign a guy like Vlad without dipping into the other parts of your budget -- and since this was a patented Angelos Move, it's safe to say they didn't -- and when the only thing you give up to get him is the opportunity cost on that $8 million (which is vanishingly small because again, not part of the pot to begin with), you sign him. The discussion about how that budget is set up is one for another day, and spoiler alert: it has the unhappy conclusion that the Orioles front office is what it is, and that the only solace of someone who wants a larger IFA and Latin American presence is to be found in the fact that your fandom is probably going to be able to outlast Peter Angelos's ownership of the club.

And I'm not sure this is even going to be an issue. I think Reimold and Pie will have more than enough opportunities to showcase themselves to MacPhail, Showalter, the other guys on the team and the fans, because I don't think that all three of Luke Scott, Vladimir Guerrero, and Derrek Lee are going to be healthy the entire year. And two of those guys more than likely won't be back in 2012. Reimold and Pie will have their chances at redemption and careers in Baltimore, and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out. It doesn't work out for most guys. The fact that they're in the mix is testament enough to their ability.

But this is all a side note to the real questions of what Vlad, Lee, Kevin Gregg, Mark Reynolds, and J.J. Hardy mean for Baltimore's long-term future, and whether or not Andrew MacPhail has lost his goddamn mind. I'll tackle those when I'm less preoccupied with hexing the Steelers' wideouts in preparation for tomorrow.

Back From the Bog. The Blog Bog. Hi Vlad.

2011-02-04T23:29:00.001-05:00

So yeah, I'm probably going to start updating this freaking thing again. Long story short, I had a really drastic career change about, oh, one year ago exactly and then the Orioles had a terrible season and well, I got sort of bogged down. I blame Steve Trachsel, because there is no statute of limitations on his crimes.

I might disappear again. Probably not. For now, I will note that the Orioles have signed OF/DH Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, eight million dollar deal. You may have already heard. I will note that Vlad's agent pulled the stunningly brilliant tactical move of claiming that Guerrero had an eight million dollar deal already in hand from A Mystery Team!!! once it became clear the Orioles were probably not going to go above the four and a half to five million dollar range. And to be fair, it appears he was right. The mystery team turned out to be the Baltimore Orioles.

As I've been beaten for like six hours on this news, you've probably already read your fill of how this really adds maybe a marginal half-win to the Orioles' lineup for a pricetag that could field an entire team of South American teenage prospects. That's fine. Anyone who knows the Orioles of the past decade knows the only way that eight million dollars was going anywhere near Latin America was if, well, it went to Vlad. Baltimore isn't really into that whole International Free Agency...thing. This might explain why they are so bad. The fact that they've had the second-to-fewest draft picks in the top three rounds of the draft over the past five years also might have something to do with it.

Either way, welcome aboard Kevin Gregg, J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Jeremy Accardo, the corpse of Justin Duchscherer, and yes, Vlad, you too -- I, for one, am more than ready for the Era of Pretty Decent, I Guess to begin.

An Update from the Snowdrift

2010-02-08T13:00:00.001-05:00

There hasn't been much content here for the past couple weeks, largely because I didn't feel like bragging about calling the Tejada signing, there hasn't been much other Orioles news, and my attention has been captured by another guy who wears the number eight: Alexander Ovechkin. Yes, there's a sister blog coming for the Capitals. And this one's moving to a real domain and over to WordPress. And all of these things are happening in the murky and undefined Future, when we get around to setting it all up. But it is coming.

For now, do what I'm doing: shoveling snow, purchasing a flamethrower online, and rejoicing that pitchers and catchers report in a little over a week.

Bring Back Tejada -- No, I'm Not Trolling

2010-01-19T13:08:00.000-05:00

It's been awhile since the last update to this blog, the primary reasons for that being a lack of news on which to comment combined with the soulcrushing ennui of the typical Baltimore sports baseball offseason (which recently has expanded to include playoff losses by the next-door Ravens, but don't think me ungrateful; at least they make it there). However, there have been enough rumblings about something I was making offhand jokes about a month ago to drag me out of my blogging stupor: the possibility of Miguel Tejada returning to the Baltimore Orioles.

I should preface this by saying I couldn't care less about the clubhouse or a player's effect on it. This is first and foremost because as a fan I have no way to evaluate it. There's no numbers involved in whether or not a guy is a prick or great to hang out with; that's something you learn through sweating it out next to a guy 162 games a year (half that if you're a Met), and I don't know these people. I certainly don't trust reporters to know what the hell they're talking about when it comes to workplace relationships between Major League Baseball players, and the players themselves have their own biases and perspectives that everything they say has to filter through, so instead of engaging in what's essentially sports augury I'm going to put the whole "clubhouse cancer" vs. "veteran presence" discussion off to one side and talk about the tangible things the players leave on the field.

Miguel Tejada is an allegedly-35 year old who hit .313/.340/.455 in 673 PA last year. His fielding at shortstop was expectedly tragic, putting up a -12.4 UZR/150, but if the Orioles (or anyone) sign him, he'd be moving to third, where hopefully some of his range problems would be mollified -- the reason Tejada's defense was so terrible during his time in Baltimore wasn't his arm or his instincts, it was that he just could not move laterally with the quickness a shortstop needs and therefore had to play with a foot on the outfield grass. Okay, fine, his instincts weren't great either, but we're on Plan C right now, and the O's wouldn't be signing Miggy for his defense.

They'd be signing him because the other non-organizational third base option at the moment is Joe Crede, who put up an OPS almost 100 points smaller than Tejada's last year, and may or may not have a functioning spinal column. Tejada's put up almost as many PA in the last two years as Crede has in the last four; the problem with Tejada has never been durability. And with Crede's health issues, who knows how good his admittedly top-tier defense at third will be, and more importantly, how many many games for which it'll be available? On paper, a Crede-Izturis-Roberts-Atkins infield would have some pretty slick fielding credentials, but Roberts is the best contact hitter, the best slugger, and the most disciplined of all four, and as much as I love him, his bat the last couple years has only been a bit above average. If Garrett Atkins rebounds to his form from a couple years ago, this changes things, but the Orioles need good hitters right now much more than they need good fielders -- especially a guy who can be moved to DH if Josh Bell continues his meteoric rise and joins the big club in the second half.

Roch Kubatko thinks that it's Joe Crede or bust and this point, and that the Orioles aren't that interested in bringing Tejada back, but beyond the giddy fan appeal of resigning both Tejada and Bedard a couple years after trading the two men for pretty much an entire farm system, both moves make sense; it's not like the Orioles are bidding against anyone for Tejada's services, and they need the pop he can bring.

Especially now that Aubrey Huff is off the table. Ha ha ha ha ha.

The Baltimore Orioles Acquire A. Gonzalez

2010-01-15T20:49:00.000-05:00

This time, it's bench bat/utility infielder Andy Gonzalez. He is not related to Adrian, as far as I know; Adrian's brother is named Edgar.

But look at that major-league IsoD!!!

Irony 2.0

2009-12-30T14:07:00.000-05:00

Just as I finish up a blog post with this:

"Of course, this all goes out the window if the O's do something nuts like trade for an Adrian Gonzalez or sign a Matt Holliday, but there's not much chance of that happening right now."

I flip over to Twitter to see that it's alive with the sound of groaning, because it looks like Andy MacPhail made Matt Holliday an 8 year, $130 million contract offer. No word if that offer is still good, of course. Maybe Jason Bay's contract has depressed the market slightly.

Useless Lineup Masturbation

2009-12-30T13:46:00.001-05:00

Because right now, there's not much else to do.

Let's pretend this is your day-in, day-out Orioles starting roster for 2010:

2B Roberts
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Scott
1B Reimold
3B Atkins
C Wieters
LF Pie
SS Izturis

Obvious assumptions involve moving Nolan Reimold to first base due to Brandon Snyder not being ready in spring training and Andy MacPhail not making anymore free agent signings of note; it's possible either Michael Aubrey or Ty Wigginton have a good camp and win this job to start the year, but I don't think it's that likely. Garrett Atkins could also play first and they could put someone else, another free agent signing or possibly a non-roster invitee who distinguishes himself, at third base, but I doubt that happens either. If Pie doesn't get traded they should commit to playing him everyday in either left or center; he's too valuable to pigeonhole as a fourth outfielder at his age.

Either way, using the Lineup Analysis tool over at BaseballMusings.com, this lineup (using last year's numbers) creates about 4.91 runs per game. The tool uses on-base percentage (they call it on-base average over there) and slugging percentage and plugs them into a formula and obviously, the higher the number, the better. For reference, the 2010 Kansas City Royals look to create 4.31 runs per game, and the 2010 New York Yankees will be putting up about 6.16 runs an outing, both of which sound pretty much spot on. Maybe the KC number is a bit high, but it never hurts to be optimistic.

But what if we don't use last year's numbers, and instead fool around with possibilities a little bit? Garrett Atkins put up a .308 OBP/.342 SLG last year in Colorado, but CHONE projects he'll rebound to a .326/.410 guy -- still not great (or even that good), but enough that if everything else stays the same, the O's lineup breaks the five-run barrier, if barely: 5.01 runs per game. If we use the Bill James numbers (.353/.448), that goes up to 5.10 runs. I wouldn't bet on a .801 OPS out of Atkins, though it would be nice.

Markakis had a down year last year, too -- after posting increases in every offensive metric over the last three years, he regressed on just about every single one of them. The most worrying of these was his BB%, something that's hard to explain away with lingering injuries or bad luck, but he should see a rebound across the board unless there's something seriously wrong with him that hasn't been disclosed, which is unlikely. If we add in Markakis's CHONE numbers, the team's runs per game go up to 5.18. The Bill James numbers (.374/.481) are similar enough that using them won't change things much, so we won't bother.

We can keep substituting these CHONE projections and eventually come out with a 5.31 with that same lineup; the system sees Roberts and Scott regressing a slight bit and the young guys like Wieters, Jones, and Reimold get better. The numbers don't mean much right now because they don't reflect anything that's happened in reality, but considering they represent a marked increase over last year's 4.77 runs per game, they're welcome comfort regardless.

An interesting side note is that if we slot in Robert Andino, the current utility infielder/backup shortstop behind Izturis, the exact number of runs per game increases from 5.306 to 5.311. Andino, who was acquired from the Florida Marlins for pitcher Hayden Penn, probably has little chance of wrestling the starter's job from Izturis barring an injury or major regression on Cesar's part.

Of course, this all goes out the window if the O's do something nuts like trade for an Adrian Gonzalez or sign a Matt Holliday, but there's not much chance of that happening right now.

From the Files of Why the Fuck Not: Give Aubrey a Shot

2009-12-24T21:47:00.003-05:00

No, not Huff. My admiration and enjoyment of Aubrey Huff and the way he plays baseball is well-known, but no, I'm referring to the guy the Orioles brought up to replace him after they sent Huff to Detroit to earn the temporary disgust and ire of that franchise: Michael Aubrey.

Aubrey was acquired from the Cleveland Indians' affiliate, AAA Columbus, a little over halfway through the year, and played on the Norfolk Tides for a bit before the rosters expanded and the Orioles brought him up to play first, since Huff had been sent off to Detroit, Ty Wigginton was somewhat of a black hole, and Luke Scott was and still is uncomfortable playing that position. In his time in the big leagues last year, he did the following:

2009: 95 PA of .289/.326/.500 (.826 OPS) for 114 OPS+, 4 HR, 7 2B, 5.7 BB%, 11.5 K%, 0.5 UZR (3.0 UZR/150)

Now, there's a lot to be very concerned about there. The first thing is that walk percentage; you'd want that to be about, well, twice that for your first baseman at the least, or any power hitter really. I'm commenting on it because it matches his stats in the minors last year fairly well (.33 IsoD). Ninety plate appearances isn't enough to make a judgment about any player. His slugging numbers there are very nice, but there's not really the sample size you want to back them up. In the minors, however, there are: .436 in AAA in 2009; .454 in his minor league career across all levels (for what little that's worth). BAbip looks to be around .305-.310 for his career; it was actually a bit lower than that (.289) last year in the majors, but Aubrey made up for it with his power surge.

CHONE is pretty dire for Aubrey's 2010 (.264/.302/.417), and ZiPS isn't much better (.275/.311/.415). Why, then, should the Orioles consider giving him the start at first to open the season, provided he has a good camp? The most obvious reason is that those numbers mean even less than the ones he put up in 90 PA in 2009, by many, many orders of magnitude; the science of projecting future seasons -- as opposed to analyzing previous ones -- is imprecise on the best of days and in the kindest of interpretations. The second-most obvious reason is that the Orioles are paying him minor-league prospect money. Aubrey's 27 years old, cost-controlled, and if he flops, he can be shuffled back into AAA or to the bench as a utility/pinch-hitter in favor of Brandon Snyder, who looks like he could be fairly competent at the plate for the Orioles at some point in the next few years. But under no circumstances should they rush Snyder to the majors to try to fill a hole they could fill with other guys on the big club (hell, move Atkins over there if his bat actually comes back) in a season that's already shaping up to be pretty brutal.

And Aubrey seems like a decent guy from the interviews I've seen and read, and the Yard's right field porch seems to suit him well. There's worse things than giving a guy who maybe doesn't strictly fit a major league paycheck for a couple weeks while you figure out where you're going in the future during a rebuilding year.

My preference, obviously, is the whole Jones to left, Pie to center, Reimold to first gambit described in an earlier post, but let's face it: that's not looking very likely at this point. If Luke Scott is going to throw a bitch-fit over the prospect of playing some at first, give him what he wants, let him DH and occasionally play left -- it's not like he'll be taking playing time away from any other designated hitters the Orioles have on the 40-man roster -- and give Aubrey a long look at first. Maybe he'll find his power game, now that he's hit his prime. Maybe he'll flop. It doesn't really matter, because the Orioles aren't really playing for anything this year, and Aubrey's already in the system and already on the roster.

I mean, why the fuck not?

If Jim Rice Scares You, John Olerud Should Make You Piss Yourself

2009-12-24T10:46:00.007-05:00

A couple years back, Red Sox slugger Jim Rice got inducted into the Hall of Fame following a major press blitz by the Sox organization coming off the afterglow of their 2004 World Series Championship. There is something I need to admit up front: I have never seen Jim Rice play baseball. I have no idea what the man looks like. Furthermore, I have no interest in doing so. The man apparently got into the hall because someone working for Theo Epstein convinced the BBWAA that he was the Most Feared Hitter of His Generation, or Era, or something absolutely insane like that. As far as I can tell, Rice had a mediocre career in which he didn't do much of anything, really. That's not to say he was a bad player, mind you -- just that he was an .850 OPSing corner outfielder/designated hitter whose defensive measureables are woefully bad. You know, sort of like Luke Scott, just with fewer walks, a higher batting average, and a much longer career.

There's a statistic (actually, there's a bunch of statistics, but we'll only be using one) called WARP3 that Baseball Prospectus uses to give a concise overview of a player's cumulative career contributions to his team, as measured by advanced sabermetrics. The acronym -- yes, acronym, because you're supposed to say the stat like you're ordering the Starship Enterprise to gun it -- stand for Wins Above Replacement Player, level 3. You can find an explanation of how it returns the number it does here, but really all you need to know to understand this list is that the stat is cumulative across a player's entire career, takes both offense and defense into account, and the higher the number, the more you contributed during your time in Major League Baseball.

Without further ado, here is a list of selected players who have not been inducted into the Hall of Fame (or in the case of current or recently retired players, are currently not projected to make the Hall) that have higher career WARP3s than former Boston Red Stocking slugger Jim Rice.

Lou Whitaker -- 75.9
Willie Randolph -- 67.0
Robin Ventura -- 66.4
Kevin Brown -- 65.3
Larry Walker -- 62.4
Ron Cey -- 61.3
Andruw Jones -- 61.3
John Olerud -- 60.6
Bret Saberhagen -- 60.4
Matt Williams -- 58.6
Bernie Williams -- 57.3
Bobby Abreu -- 57.1
Carlos Beltran -- 57.1
Reggie Smith -- 56.1
Bobby Bonds -- 55.2
Paul O'Neill -- 55.0
Orel Hershiser -- 54.7
David Cone -- 53.9
Jay Bell -- 53.7
Albert Belle -- 53.3
Vladimir Guerrero -- 53.3
George Foster -- 52.8
Kenny Rogers -- 52.6
Bobby Bonilla -- 52.4
Jerry Koosman -- 51.9
Kenny Lofton -- 51.7
Jason Giambi -- 51.2
Graig Nettles -- 50.8
Miguel Tejada -- 50.8
Mike Cameron -- 50.7
David Wells -- 50.7
Andy van Slyke -- 50.4
Todd Helton -- 50.0
Rusty Staub -- 49.9
Frank Viola -- 49.8
Harold Baines -- 48.5
Ken Singleton -- 47.9
Omar Vizquel -- 47.8
Nomar Garciaparra -- 47.6
Jose Canseco -- 47.1
Gil Hodges -- 47.1
Ray Durham -- 46.9
Daryl Strawberry -- 46.9
Kevin Appier -- 46.7
Eric Davis -- 46.1
Roy White -- 45.5
John Franco -- 45.4
Jamie Moyer -- 45.4
Johnny Damon -- 45.3
Moises Alou -- 45.2
Julio Franco -- 45.0
Jimmy Key -- 44.8
Andy Pettitte -- 44.7
Dennis Martinez -- 44.4
Tim Salmon -- 44.2
Tom Gordon -- 44.1
Chuck Knoblauch -- 43.9
Steve Rogers -- 43.9
Chili Davis -- 43.8
Tommy Henrich -- 43.6
Mark Grace -- 43.0
Bret Boone -- 42.6
Devon White -- 42.6
Minny Minoso -- 42.5
Kevin Mitchell -- 42.5
Jason Kendall -- 42.2
Steve Finley -- 41.3
Ray Lankford -- 41.1
Tim Hudson -- 40.9
Kirk Gibson -- 40.8
Ellis Burks -- 40.2
J.D. Drew -- 40.2
Magglo Ordonez -- 39.7
Edgar Renteria -- 39.6
Javy Lopez -- 39.5
Boog Powell -- 39.4
Placido Polanco -- 39.0
Troy Glaus -- 38.9
Kent Hrbek -- 38.8
Jon Matlack -- 37.7
Tom Henke -- 36.8
Brad Radke --36.8
Reggie Sanders -- 36.7
Benito Santiago -- 36.6
Adrian Beltre -- 36.2
Tony Pena -- 36.1
Jose Rijo -- 35.8
Dusty Baker -- 35.7
Derek Lowe -- 35.7
Jesse Orosco -- 35.4
Alphonso Soriano -- 35.1
Jim Rice -- 34.2

Yes, that Jason Kendall.

I wouldn't put it past some of the other guys on this list to make it in eventually -- True Yankee Bernie Williams, for instance, has rings and New York Mystique to help his case -- but I very much doubt guys like Lowe and Glaus and Ellis Burks and Bobby Freaking Bonilla are ever getting in. After all, none of them were ever the Most Feared Whatever of Their Non-Specific Time Period (it should be noted that Barry Bonds, who actually was the most feared hitter of his generation and perhaps history, had more intentional walks in his 2004 season than Jim Rice had in his entire career).

And as for guys who didn't make this list, well, two stand out: David Ortiz (32.3) and Jason Varitek (29.2). Sure, they could conceivably get over that hump if they played a few more years, but Ortiz was worth .5 last year, and Varitek worth 1.0, and with another year of wear and tear on their bodies, I wouldn't bet on it. Both men, however, will undoubtedly be going to the Hall of Fame. And you might start to hear about David Ortiz in particular that he was the Most Feared Hitter of His Generation. It'll be just as true of him as it was of Rice.

A lot of the names on this list were compiled with help from the girls and boys at the Something Awful Forums, who came up with this fun little game originally.

Birdwatch 12/23/09

2009-12-23T14:59:00.003-05:00

Less with the jokes today, I think; the Javier Vazquez trade has soured my mood. You can mentally update the previous post about the Yankees as you see fit; the upshot is that instead of coming into the season with a rotation in the middle of the top ten in Major League Baseball, the Yankees are now top five. It is realistic to expect that they are not yet done, and will likely take fliers on undervalued guys with concerning contracts at positions of need, whether through trade or free agency. Wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a guy like Kiko Calero. They were talking about trading for Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs, and one would think the Vazquez acqusition would put paid to that, but you never know. I wouldn't put it past them to contact Erik Bedard about coming to the team later in the season on an incentive-laden one-year make good contract that sees him coming out of the pen; in their new park the Yankees value strikeout specialists over all other kinds of pitchers, and Bedard fits the bill perfectly.

We could have a long discussion about payroll inequality in the sport, but it's been done before, and I'm tired of having it. It's not really something that's fucked the Orioles that badly, anyhow; the past twelve years are due more to institutional idiocy and hubris than anything else. J.P. Riccardi's Toronto Blue Jays from 2006 to 2008, however, are a bleaker story; their pythags over those years puts them around a 90 win team, but the division they played in combined with terrible luck (Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum) and one horrific contract (Vernon Wells) -- and the inability to pay that bad luck to go away like the Yankees and, to a much lesser extent, Boston Red Sox are able to -- have seen them fire Riccardi, trade the face of their franchise and one of the best pitchers of the last decade for prospects, and essentially enter rebuilding mode. They, like the Orioles, will continue fighting for the scraps of the AL East in 2010, while the Rays and Sox battle for second. And unless there's a major sea change in New York City soon, that's the way it's going to be for the next few years.

The Orioles' deal with third baseman Garrett Atkins is $4.5 million for one year with a club option for 2011, as you might have heard. Like the Gonzalez signing, the contract is short and easily jettisoned if it turns out to be a mistake. Miguel Tejada would have been a better choice from the stats side of things, but his prior history with Baltimore and the fact that he wants a multi-year deal made that unrealistic. I talked a lot of shit about Atkins in my previous posts, but he's probably the best stopgap option; nothing was traded to get him and it doesn't hamper the club long-term.

The O's also signed Australian lefty Chris Lamb to a minor league deal. Lamb's currently 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in the Aussie league he's playing in, and even though ERA is extremely flawed, once it gets up into the sevens you should start worrying. Another low risk, low reward move; Ryan Rowland-Smith this guy probably isn't.

MacPhail is more or less standing pat now, I'd guess. The Orioles still need a power bat, but it's looking more and more likely that unless someone wants to overpay for Pie, they'll see if Brandon Snyder has what it takes in Spring Training, and if not, make do until he's ready to come up for an extended look.

And Now, a Quick Word on the Monsters in the Attic

2009-12-18T19:03:00.004-05:00

There is one hard, inescapable truth the Baltimore Orioles will face in 2010:

The New York Yankees will be the best team in baseball.

And barring a catastrophic mixture of regressions, fall-offs, injuries, and outright derelictions of duty in the Bronx, it won't even be close.

Here is what we know about the 2010 New York Yankees, with their 2009 mentionables attached:

C Jorge Posada (133 OPS+)
1B Mark Teixiera (149 OPS+)
2B Robinson Cano (129 OPS+)
SS Derek Jeter (132 OPS+)
3B Alex Rodriguez (147 OPS+)
LF Curtis Granderson (100 OPS+)
CF Brett Gardner (93 OPS+)
RF Nick Swisher (129 OPS+)
DH Nick Johnson (122 OPS+)

Team UZR/150: -4.9 -- but trading Johnny Damon (-12.1 in LF) for Curtis Granderson (27.2 in LF)

C.C. Sabathia (3.82 xFIP)
A.J. Burnett (3.67 xFIP)
Andy Pettitte (3.69 xFIP)
Joba Chamberlain (3.88 xFIP)
Phil Hughes (4.25 xFIP)

I could calculate the xFIP of the bullpen, but suffice it to say they were something like the best or second-best bullpen in baseball last year in terms of runs allowed, either behind or directly ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, depending on you who count as a starter and who you count as a reliever.

They're sick. Unworldly. Even if Posada, Jeter, and Pettitte hit the wall -- and Posada and Jeter almost certainly will not -- they still have the best lineup in baseball. As far as defense goes, Jeter's learned in his mid-thirties how to play to his left side, which he can do, because he's Derek Fucking Jeter, and they've replaced defensive black hole Johnny Damon with a guy who should be starting in center for the Detroit Tigers, but apparently Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski looks to faces of the franchise first when finding guys to ship out for salary reasons.

The rotation is perhaps the sixth-best in baseball next year, if everyone in every rotation stays healthy, which they won't -- I'd put them behind St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Florida, and either the Detroit Tigers or the Chicago White Sox, depending on how I'm feeling about their back of the rotation guys, in no particular order. The Atlanta Braves might have a legitimate claim, too. But that's it. Boston isn't as good, Philadelphia's five are horrendously front-loaded, and pretty much everyone else has a weakness somewhere -- but if Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes pitch the way they should, as Major League starters free of hard innings caps and stints in the bullpen, that rotation will be dominant. And even then, it's very likely that by the time spring training starts, Ben Sheets will be a Yankee as well. You know, just in case anyone gets hurt.

So, the hope is that the Yankees are unlucky, panicky, boorish, and dumb; that the kids stay in the pen, Melky Cabrera and Xavier Nady take starts away from Gardner and Swisher, Pettitte, Posada, and Jeter fall off their respective cliffs, and they get so BAbip'd to death in April and May that they insist on trading prospects and good, undervalued pieces for guys with low playoff ERAs or great pinch-hitting averages. The only team that can defeat the New York Yankees next year is the New York Yankees -- and everyone else in the East, Baltimore included, had better hope Girardi, Cashman, Steinbrenner, and the Post are up to the challenge.

The Baltimore Orioles Acquire G. Atkins

2009-12-16T22:48:00.003-05:00

ARGH

The Baltimore Orioles Acquire A Gonzalez

2009-12-16T22:37:00.001-05:00

But unfortunately, he is not A. Gonzalez.

He is Mike Gonzalez, lefty reliever out of Atlanta, recent recipient of Tommy John surgery and now a 2 year, $12 million deal from the Orioles. The contract has incentives in it that could bring his total paycheck for the deal up to $16 million.

The first thought I had regarding this was, "That's not how you spell Kiko Calero." And I'm right, because "Mike Gonzalez" is spelled with two Z's and a second round pick. He's a Type A free agent -- deservedly so, for once -- and that means that the Atlanta Braves are now the proud owner of the third pick of the second round in next June's amateur draft. That's concerning.

Gonzalez is a good pitcher (3.52 xFIP, 10.62 K/9 for his career) with a ridiculous slider and a hilarious wind-up, which makes this a better massive overpayment than some of the others the Orioles have embarked on in the last couple years, but Calero, Pena, and Capps all would have been as good pickups, if not as good on the field, just because they would have come with a smaller price tag and no loss of draft picks. Perhaps MacPhail was worried the Orioles didn't have enough lefties in the pen, or that they needed to have an Elite Closer to compete in the AL East, or some other combination of dumb things, but regardless, Baltimore is a club that's about two years away from having the luxury of overpaying for a closer of all things.

The contract is not so bad, however, that it can't be flipped, especially to a big market team, and doubly so if the Orioles eat a little money and Gonzalez is pitching well. If MacPhail replicates the Sherrill trade from last year -- and while Sherrill is Hall of Fame caliber against lefty hitting, Gonzalez is the more complete package -- and gets a power bat, then he can set the Orioles up to be good for awhile.

For now, though, it's just a bit confusing. $15 million dollars added to the payroll, in the form of a mediocre starter and lefty closer. Is that really what the Orioles needed this offseason?

Out of Left Field

2009-12-16T16:11:00.011-05:00

Yes, "Out of Left Field." En garde, Kubatko.

The topic of what exactly to do with the Orioles outfield, particularly Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie, in 2010 is something that Baltimore's fans and front office have been debating since last September. My proposal is not unique -- I mean there's only five or six things they could do total, and that includes bringing back Brady Anderson to play left -- but I think it's easily the best of the choices available and I want to work through the thought process behind it before we do something stupid like trade Pie for a soft-hitting, mediocre third baseman.

For reference, here's the rundown on the guys who are in the mix for playing time in the out there in 2010, sorted generally by position:

Adam Jones: 519 PA of .277/.335/.457 (.792 OPS) for 106 OPS+, .308 BAbip, 2.8 UZR/150 (CF), 6.9 UZR/150 (LF)
Felix Pie: 281 PA of .266/.326/.437 (.763 OPS) for 99 OPS+, .309 BAbip, 8.3 UZR/150 (CF), 15.3 UZR/150 (LF)

Nick Markakis: 711 PA of .293/.347/.453 (.801 OPS) for 109 OPS+, .317 BAbip, 3.5 UZR/150 (RF)

Nolan Reimold: 411 PA of .279/.365/.466 (.831 OPS) for 117 OPS+, .320 BAbip, -17.3 UZR/150 (LF)
Luke Scott: 506 PA of .258/.340/.488 (.828 OPS) for 115 OPS+, .284 BAbip, 7.4 UZR/150 (LF)
Lou Montanez: 208 PA of .247/.285/.376 (.661 OPS) for 73 OPS+, .286 BAbip, -10.3 UZR/150 (LF)

Offensive numbers are for 2009; UZR/150 is cumulative, since that stat takes awhile to be predictive. Note that for Montanez, I combined his 2008 and 2009, due to him only having 91 PAs in the majors last year, where he hit an abysmal .183/.244/.280.

When discussing the future of the Baltimore outfield, the first thing to note is that the O's have a problem going into 2010 that not many clubs face: they have two potential starting-quality centerfielders. A lot of clubs out there -- the Padres, Royals, Cubs, and Braves immediately come to mind -- are looking for just one. We're defining "potential starting-quality centerfielder" here as someone who provides a defensive premium at the position and comes with a bat that's worth that premium; for instance, DeWayne Wise of last year's White Sox team had the fielding chops for the spot, but was a black hole with the bat, his OPS a shade over .600. Meanwhile on the other side of town, the Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome put up a .796 OPS, which is respectable for a centerfielder, but had an atrocious -20.3 UZR/150. The New York Yankees now have two starting centerfielders in Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson, and the Boston Red Sox might think they do as well, but really don't -- Mike Cameron is legit, but Jacoby Ellsbury isn't. He's just fast.

The consensus starter in center for the Orioles, Adam Jones, may have won a Gold Glove for his outfield play last year, but UZR didn't like him much at all (-4.1 UZR/150); however, he had a great year in center the year before, his career numbers there are positive, and he's only 23 and getting better. Jones had an absolutely nutty start to the year at the plate in 2009 (1.062 OPS in March/April, .960 OPS in May), but fell off hard the rest of the year due to a combination of injuries and going from a BAbip near .400 to one around .270. When he did get hurt, that gave Felix Pie, a former highly-touted Chicago Cubs prospect who the Orioles got for dirt cheap in the 2008-2009 offseason, the chance to get near-regular playing time in center. Pie had about half the plate appearances of Jones last year, but look at his first and second half splits:

1st half: 119 PA of .234/.299/.355 (.654 OPS)
2nd half: 162 PA of .290/.346/.497 (.842 OPS)

Buried in that second half was an August about as crazy as Jones's April, when he posted a 1.045 OPS with 5 HR and a triple. The triple came in an August 14th night game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, where Pie became only the fourth Oriole in franchise history to hit for the cycle. The others? Cal Ripken, Brooks Robinson, and Aubrey Huff. True Orioles, all of them. Not even kidding; Huff's 2008 "horseshit town" radio appearance and the season that followed made him one of my favorite Orioles. I still kind of hope we re-sign him for cheap.

So the question becomes, who do you put out there as the starter? The sure-thing guy you got from the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard, or the reclamation project out of Chicago who everyone thought was more or less done in the majors? Do you let them fight it out in Spring Training? Do you trade one? If so, who?

Pie's a year older than Jones, and while it's a bit early to say that he's going to be the kind of player going forward that a glance at his 2009 would indicate, his trade value will probably never be higher than it is right now. That's why if the offer is right, MacPhail should deal Pie -- not because he's blocked by Jones in center, but because the market is likely overvaluing him. Bill James thinks his stat line next year is going to be about the same as it was overall this year, and he's usually optimistic in his predictions. If Pie can be the centerpiece of a deal that brings a young, cost-controlled power bat to the Orioles infield or designated hitter position, then MacPhail should thank him for all he's done and send him on his way.

If not -- if no one is willing to overpay for Pie -- then the Orioles should keep him and start him. And start Jones, too. The most graceful solution to the logjam in center is not to platoon the two guys, or trade one, or relegate one to fourth outfielder; it's to put Adam Jones in left.

This is where Nolan Reimold comes in. Reimold was a worthy candidate for AL Rookie of the Year last season, and arguably should have gotten it, considering the number of offensive categories he led the league's rookies in over 2009. However, he was hurt for a good deal the last couple months of the season with a frayed Achilles tendon that he played through (due to his RoY campaign, no doubt) and his defense in left field was atrocious. The two are undoubtedly related, as the Achilles injury robbed Reimold of a lot of his speed and acceleration, and the fact remains that even if we don't consider the injury, there's only one year of UZR out there to judge Reimold on. It's not even a full year -- he didn't come up until halfway through May, and wasn't the everyday starter in left at any point in the season, since he was splitting time with Felix Pie (whose defense in left is absolutely elite, but wasted, and he doesn't have the bat to carry the position) and then was hurt.

Next year, a healthy Reimold in left could be, well, anything. He was supposed to have average defense out there, but scouts are notoriously bad at evaluating prospect defense and how it translates to the majors. He could turn out to be a Markakis-like solid player; he could turn out to be a guy like Luke Scott, whose defense every announcer and casual fan hate but whose stats show as a decent contributor there. He could turn out to be terrible. Adam Jones, on the other hand, is already an average defensive centerfielder, and there's no good reason why that shouldn't translate to above-average to elite defense in left field, as it has for most other centerfielders who move over that way.

But if Adam Jones moves to left, Reimold has to move somewhere else, because Nick Markakis isn't going anywhere in right, and nor should he. The two most likely places to put him are first base and designated hitter. Reimold's never played first, at least not since 2001 when he joined the Orioles' organization; he's never played infield at all in that time. First base is considered the easiest of the infield positions to play, but that doesn't mean that Reimold, or anyone, can just pick it up in spring training and be good to go to start the season. And on the other hand, Reimold's 2009 doesn't have the offensive value you want out of your DH -- but he tore up AAA pitching in Norfolk before his call up, and he's only 25, with his power still developing. Bill James thinks he's going to put up a .373 OBP and a .524 SLG next year, which even for Bill James is ludicrously over the top. If he's right and Reimold puts up a .900 or so OPS, yeah, he'll be good at DH or first or really wherever the Orioles want to play him. Something like .860 is more realistic, I think, and if that's the case, the Orioles should keep Luke Scott at DH and try Reimold out at first, since Scott has publicly griped about not wanting to learn how to play first base anyway.

The second question is whether Adam Jones's bat is worth it in left field. David Golebiewski at RotoGraphs seems to think it's going to be more than worth it in center, and particularly notable are Jones's lowered strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and higher power output. The CHONE and ZiPS projection systems give him around a .280/.340/.475 line, which is fine for left field if it comes true, especially considering his defense. That .895 slugging percentage on flyballs mentioned in the article is most likely unsustainable, but there's no reason for it to crater. If he eventually matures into a .900 OPS player, that makes him an excellent left fielder as opposed to an elite centerfielder. If Jones can take the ego bruise that comes from moving off the premium outfield defensive position in favor of Pie, then the Orioles should go ahead and move him, and see how it works out. If Pie falls off or someone is willing to overpay for him at the 2010 deadline, Jones can move right back to center.

Meanwhile, this gives the Orioles remarkable defense across the outfield without sacrificing Reimold's bat or Pie's fielding, perhaps solves the question at first base, and gives Lou Montanez a chance to stick as the O's fourth outfielder -- another ex-Cub prospect, Montanez isn't really learning anything new in the minors, is in his prime, put up a .900 OPS in AAA last year, and can spell Markakis and whoever's playing left every now and again. The UZR metrics on him aren't kind, but also cover a total of 59 games, so who really knows on that end.

The one position not really touched on above is Nick Markakis in right; there's no real option to displace him and he's going to be there for awhile, having just signed a 6 year, $66 million deal with the Orioles. However, his 2009 was concerning -- it showed wholesale regression at the plate and in the field, from a large dip in OBP and a hit in UZR, though his power numbers remained the same. The thought is that he'll have a better year next year, especially defensively, but Orioles fans should come to grips with the idea that his ridiculous 99 BB age 24 season is likely the outlier, not his 56 BB in 2009. And if he splits the difference in 2010, he'll still be one of the better young right fielders in the league.

You Know What Fucking Ruled About Freddie Bynum, Jr.?

2009-12-15T18:45:00.002-05:00

"I can do anything and everything you want to do on a baseball field. If you want me to run the catcher over I can run him over. If you want me to drop kick somebody I'll drop kick them. I am ready. I am ready to play ball."

-- Freddie Bynum, Jr.

Cliff Lee's a Pretty Cool Dude at a Pretty Good Price

2009-12-15T17:40:00.007-05:00

Don't really have time for a mega-post tonight, but really, just a thought: If you're Andy MacPhail and you hear the Seattle Mariners are about to turn an injury-prone reliever and a light-hitting middle infielder who was only mediocre in A Ball into a Cy Young award winner and consensus Top 10 pitcher, why the hell are you not already on the phone with Rube Amaro trying to steal the man's pants off his ass?

I don't mean that the Orioles should acquire Lee. He fits them absolutely not at all. But this is about the principle of the matter. At least drive the price up.

And now, gin.

Baltimore Reliever Aggregation Station

2009-12-14T20:10:00.007-05:00

Now that the Winter Meetings are over, the General Managers have retreated each to their own cities to pursue whatever ill-conceived plans they weren't able to get done in Indianapolis. For the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, this appears to be trolling fans of the New York Yankees, as always; for the St. Louis Cardinals, it's salivating over talented pitching castoffs and driving drunk, as always; and for the Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, and Toronto Blue Jays, it's building the Ozymandias of offseason trades, an orgiastic majesty of prospects and extensions. The bandit prince of Oakland Billy Beane is also lurking around somewhere out there in the shadows, still disgruntled he signed Eric Chavez to a long-term deal. And as always, the Baltimore Orioles are considering precisely which relief pitcher of dubious quality they should throw six or seven million dollars at each of the next couple years.

The market is wide open right now, big as the sea and about as full of flame-outs from the NL Central (though one hopes they end up better than Jessie Hollins). But right now the relievers available should be a list of only three as far as the Orioles are concerned:

Kiko Calero (10.35 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 2.30 K/BB, 1.10 WHIP, .259 BAbip, 60.0 IP, 3.92 xFIP)
Matt Capps (7.62 K/99, 2.82 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 1.66 WHIP, .370 BAbip (!!), 54.1 IP, 4.37 xFIP)
Tony Pena (7.07 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 2.67 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP, .304 BAbip, 70.0 IP, 3.87 xFIP)

Calero's an ex-Florida Marlin, Capps is the non-tendered closer of the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates, and Tony Pena is the only relief pitcher leaving the White Sox this season that Baltimore should consider -- Carrasco's unimpressive and Dotel, a Type A, is going to cost picks.

It's hard to say anything with certainty about where the bullpen is before spring training and its inevitable procession of arm injuries and the mirage of superstardom cast by minor league hitting and small sample size, but right now Koji Uehara has been announced as a planned reliever and the closer's job will likely be his to lose. This is good, because Uehara's OPS against in the first three innings in 2009 was .641, and opponents seeing him for the first time in a game had an OPS'd .561. Sure, he'd probably be more useful in high leverage situations, but baby steps.

Anyway, no one should go out and tell the world Uehara's the closer, because that might scare away Matt Capps. On first blush, Capps's season up there is not exactly what you want out of a guy pitching in important relief situations, but then you notice that frankly absurd BAbip against and wonder if he was fucking around with the wives and/or dogs of the entire Pirates infield. He's 26 years old, his three previous seasons in the majors saw him post an xFIP of around 4.10, and once you get non-tendered, you somewhat lose the ability to dictate how the team that signs you gets to use you. After all, if you'd been a good closer, then why were you non-tendered? Et tu, "clutch" pitching. Capps fits pretty well as a "situational" guy, in the sense that you save him for a "situation" where you need to get some batters out without giving up runs. Failing that, make him the seventh inning man, I suppose. Reliever roles that don't rely on statistical splits are for the most part petty horseshit.

Kiko Calero's a guy Orioles fans have probably never heard of, but those are some decent numbers and the hope is that no one else has heard of him, either. That's generally the blessing and the curse when dealing from guys who have just had contract years with the Florida Marlins. He's going to regress a bit because he's turning 36 and had a pretty high BAbip against, but coming to the AL East from the NL East shouldn't be too big of a shock, all things considered. Use him as Jeremy Guthrie's designated clean-up guy or something. On his days off, try him at third.

Speaking of pitchers in a utility role, the Tony Pena above is sadly not that Tony Pena, because that would have been awesome. However! What would be more awesome would be having a good relief pitcher. If Pena can put up numbers like that with the Orioles, he'd be well worth four million a year with incentives.

My expectation is that Capps signs somewhere else with the lure of Established Closing Fortitude, Calero gets picked up by the New York Mets, and Tony Pena returns to the NL West with the Dodgers or something, but if I had to give three guys in this market deals for the next year or two, it'd be those three. This means that instead we'll turn around and grab Beimel, Rodney, and Tomo Ohka, but I suppose there's worse things. Probably.

Birdwatch 12/12/09

2009-12-12T18:20:00.019-05:00

Two years ago today, former Orioles utility infielder Chris Gomez, then age 36 and notable mostly for putting up a higher slugging percentage in 2007 than two-thirds of Baltimore's starting outfield, signed a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. That slugging percentage was .391.

Today, the Orioles reached terms with relievers Matt Albers (6.58 K/9; 1.73 WHIP) and Cla Meredith (5.12 K/9; 62.9 GB%) before the tender deadline at midnight tonight. Terms have not yet been released, nor do they really matter; they won't be large enough or long enough to stop the Orioles from jettisoning them if either can't get it done. Considering Albers's WHIP and that Meredith is an extreme groundball pitcher on a team with a below average defense and whose most intelligent move to fill the hole at third might be to bring back Miguel "The Butcher of Baltimore" Tejada, that could happen as early as the first round of cuts from spring training.

The Orioles have yet to reach terms with Jeremy Guthrie or Luke Scott, the only two other arbitration-eligible guys on the roster, so that's probably where they're headed. Relievers Brian Bass and Dennis Sarfate are candidates to be non-tendered, though Sarfate (7.83 K/9) is at least worth a look.

The reason for my focus on K/9 may or may not become clear in an upcoming blog post.

Steve Melewski over at MASN launches a well-meaning but somewhat bizarre defense of General Manager Andy MacPhail.

Apparently all the Orioles' big names are cool with Kevin Millwood joining the team, which is both nice to hear and so uncontroversial that I'm going to pass on finding a link and ask you to trust me on this one.

More around the league after the jump.

The Reds non-tendered Jonny Gomes today. If you happened to put in print that they did it because General Manager Walt Jocketty's mind has been melted away by his hardcore use of MDMA while trawling Cincinnati's underground rave scene for smackheads to bat leadoff, you'd likely be convicted of libel, but the jury would agree privately it was a reasonable assumption to make. Gomes hit for ridiculous power in 2009 (.541 SLG), in part because he played in the ballpark that was a converted two-car garage with no roof. I didn't list a position for Gomes because the Reds probably would have been better off claiming he was their DH and hoping no one called them on it, or failing that, just leaving left field empty. Nevertheless the Orioles should give him a look.

It seems there are people in the sports-industrial complex pushing for the Philadelphia Phillies to trade Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, which is about as simultaneously pointless and extravagant as building a scale replica of the Titanic for the sole purpose of rearranging deck chairs wrought from gold.

The Kansas Royals sign catcher Jason Kendall for two years at $2 million per. Laugh, ye mortals, about Kendall's inability to get to second base, his weak twig, and his embarrassing propensity for striking out, but know this: for every man cursed by this world, there lives another who wishes he himself were so blessed.

Chien-Ming Wang may be non-tendered by the New York Yankees.

Jason Bay turns down a contract offer from the Boston Red Sox. New York Mets General Manager Omar Minaya, sitting alone at his desk in an empty, cavernous room beneath Citi Field, reads this news and is so moved he stands and shouts, "Why, I'll sign him for ten million a year!" He is a happy man for exactly five and a half seconds. Then he hears someone else, someone he assumes is the GM of the Philadelphia Phillies, a man he has often envied but never met, offer Bay the exact same deal! Minaya breaks out in a cold sweat. Not again, he thinks. Not after losing Raul [Ibañez]. He straightens his back, doubles the base salary, and adds an option year. This goes on for two hours. See also: Rodriguez, K.

While writing this post I was informed by a man from The Internet with dubious hair that reliever Brian Bass was non-tendered this evening. It is both an honor and a privilege to relay this in the section reserved for news about players not on the Baltimore Orioles.

More later if there's more later.

Birdwatch 12/11/09

2009-12-11T17:59:00.018-05:00

It's the day after the Winter Meetings, and neither Fernando Rodney nor Hideki Matsui are Orioles, something we should all file under the heading "Small Victories."

Otherwise things have been very quiet, other than the commenters at Peter Schmuck's blog losing their shit about how awesome Garrett Atkins is. One guy even busted out the inverted crucifix of sabermetrics: the dreaded Batting Average/Home Run/Runs Batted In offensive split. He thought ".300/20/100" was reasonable, which at first I read as ".300/.200/.100," a projection that struck me as not only slightly pessimistic but mathematically impossible. But then, if anyone's going to do it, it might as well be a guy that's put up a whopping .725 career OPS away from Coors Field and who's moving to the AL East to start everyday at a position where he's got a -5.0 UZR/150 at over six years. Everyone has to have a dream. Maybe Garrett Atkins and Andy MacPhail have the same dream, and maybe that dream centers around breaking my will to live.

Meanwhile, Roch Kubatko is linking another ex-Rockie, Jason Marquis, to the Orioles, I suspect in part just so he can get the "marquee" pun out of the way early. Marquis put up a 4.10 FIP in 2009, a year where the league average was 4.32, and he did it at Coors for the most part. But his career numbers say he's more of a 4.60 FIP guy and also, he's Jason Marquis. I just wasted five minutes of my life writing about Jason Marquis. Don't make me waste more, Andy. I swear to God I'll do it.

Buck Martinez leaves MASN and the Baltimore Orioles for Rogers SportsNet and the Toronto Blue Jays. As this will directly lead to more late-inning, suspiciously drunken-sounding pitching rants from Jim Palmer in 2010, it is by far the best offseason move either franchise has made. Hopefully Jack Daniels will be returning as the sponsor of the seventh inning. The preceding sentence is not a joke.

The "third baseman" "hunt" is more or less down to Joe Crede, Garrett Atkins, and Dan Uggla. Reading that sentence as someone new to Orioles fandom must be vaguely akin to how the Virgin Mary would feel looking up from Christ Jesus's manger and realizing the three wise men were none other than Hitler, Stalin, and Pol Pot, but we're old hands here at Ripken Is 8; we know better. Sure, Crede has a spine made of worn shoe leather, Atkins is the Antichrist and the dip in Uggla's 2009 slugging percentage makes you wonder if he even remembers where third base is, but we'll remain steadfast and true: Miguel Tejada could come back to us now, at the turn of the tide.

Selected news from around the league below the jump.

RHP J.J. Putz goes to the Chicago White Sox for $3 million base plus closer incentives. He would have been an intriguing pickup for the Orioles at that dollar amount, maybe with incentives for strikeouts or something instead of SAVES, but his K/9 going from 10.88 in 2008 to 5.83 in 2009 makes one leery.

Jon Morosi is linking Marcus Thames, lately of the Detroit Tigers, to the Blue Jays and Indians, while simultaneously redefining our modern concepts of damning a man with faint praise: "Could be this year's Russell Branyon."

If Taiwanese righty Chien-Ming Wang is non-tendered by the Yankees, he'll probably go somewhere else; that "somewhere else" will be either the Mariners, the Rays, the Phillies, or the glue factory, sadly, because I doubt the Orioles take a flier on him. Why? Because we hate good things here, that's why. Also, an infield defense that's replacing Melvin Mora with one of Atkins/Crede/Uggla would probably slam Wang with something around a .504 BAbip; if he's smart, he'll go where they can get to those groundballs in the hole.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are still not going to get Roy Halladay from the Jays for Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and some centerfielding prospect they neither need nor particularly want. No, I will not bother providing a link.

The St. Louis Dispatch says the Cardinals have made LF Matt Holliday an official offer. He's still going to New York.

The Kurious Kases of Kevin Kouzmanoff and Kila Ka'aihue

2009-12-10T16:18:00.004-05:00

Orioles General Manager Andy MacPhail will, barring any last minute insanity, be leaving the MLB Winter Meetings in Indianapolis having completed only one transaction, that being RHP Chris Ray and LHP Benjamin Snyder (formerly of the San Francisco Giants; see Rule V notes below) for RHP Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers and $3 million cash. This is important, because none of the names in the previous sentence are "Pedro Feliz." Astros GM and noted rabies victim Ed Wade took care of that by signing the former Philadelphia third baseman to a 1 year, $4 million contract, which in the context of his earlier signing of RHP Brandon Lyon is actually reasonable, all things concerned. Pedro Feliz is notable for being 2009 Melvin Mora, except three years younger, and without the eight cute kids.

Now that Feliz is off the table, there's really one other big ("big") name the Orioles have been linked to at third, and that's Kevin Kouzmanoff of the San Diego Padres.

Here's a breakdown of Kouzmanoff's notables:

2007 (Age 25): 145 G, .275/.329/.457 (.786) for 110 OPS+ in 534 PA, .309 BAbip, 18.2 LD%, 11.3 HR/FB%, -2.3 UZR/150, 2.6 WAR
2008 (Age 26): 154 G, .260/.299/.433 (.732) for 100 OPS+ in 668 PA, .301 BAbip, 21.6 LD%, 12.1 HR/FB%, 3.1 UZR/150, 2.7 WAR
2009 (Age 27): 141 G, .255/.302/.420 (.722) for 100 OPS+ in 573 PA, .289 BAbip, 19.6 LD%, 11.6 HR/FB%, 10.7 UZR/150, 2.7 WAR

There's some advanced stat stuff in there, but nothing too bad -- UZR/150 is a defensive measurement measuring how many more or fewer runs a given fielder allows than the average fielder at his position, normalized for 150 games at that position; it factors in both a player's errors and the range he has in the field. BAbip and LD% I discussed in detail in the Kevin Millwood breakdown, but they measure a hitter's luck on balls they put into play and how often they make good contact, respectively. HR/FB% is the percentage of fly balls a batter hits that turn into home runs -- just over one of every eight of Kouzmanoff's fly balls in 2008 turned into a home run, for instance. That 12% is about the league average. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, and is a catch-all "value" stat that describes how many wins a player adds to your team in a given season when you play him over a replacement-level player. A "replacement-level" player is someone who is producing far below the league average at a position; you can either mentally slot in Neifi Perez whenever the term comes up, or click here for a more in-depth explanation.

There's really two things that stand out about Kouzmanoff: the first is that he's very consistent at the plate. Consistently average, mind you, but consistent, and not just in the normal average/slugging/on-base percentage categories; there's not a lot of variance in LD% or HR/FB%, nor his BAbip. If I had to guess, and I do, I'd say his 2010 is going to look a lot like his last two seasons, with an OPS+ around 100 and a .260/.300/.420 line. Some of those, especially the slugging, might track upwards once he gets out of PetCo Park, but I'm leery about taking park factors too heavily into account; even away from that hitter's tomb he was only a .778 OPS player in 2009, and the pitching in the AL East is pretty nasty right now. He's 28 years old, so he's still in his prime and could theoretically improve there, but I think Bill James's prediction of a .327 OBP, .463 SLG, and .790 OPS season is over-optimistic, as his projections have a tendency to be.

The other thing that stands out is that Kouzmanoff has improved his defense noticeably. The weakest thing about UZR as a stat is that it really doesn't give good predictive value until you have three seasons of it compiled for a player, but progressing from -2.3 to 10.7 UZR/150 in three years is a good sign. Cumulatively, he's got a 2.8 UZR/150 for his career, which could be better but could also be much, much worse. He's played out his 2009 contract, is eligible for arbitration and would be getting a significant raise through that process, though San Diego media sources think it'd only be to around $4 to 5 million. The general thinking, however, is that he'll be traded; his stock was high after prominent consideration for the NL Gold Glove for third basemen, which ended up going to Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (and rightly so; Zimmerman's UZR/150 last year was 20.1).

Other than that, though, Kouzmanoff is a decidedly league-average third baseman both offensively and defensively, and will probably be slightly overpaid when he signs his next contract, no matter who it's with (though that hardly makes him unique).

There are really one of two routes to go with the hole the Orioles have to fill at third base. The first route is obtaining a low-cost, short-term stop gap for this year while prospect Josh Bell races through the farm system. The guy you want is probably a defensive specialist who is fine with taking a one or two year deal either to build his value for another, bigger FA contract, or because he's at the point where he's not going to get much else. Pedro Feliz was basically this guy. He's got a 15.5 UZR/150 at third for his career (5.0 UZR/150 there last year for Philadelphia), no real bat of which to speak, and is in his mid-thirties. In another year or two he'll be a Chris Gomez utility type, though there's every indication that he could be that guy right now. Most farm systems would have had a guy to plug in at third that would give more value going forward, but Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane have salted that particular patch of earth pretty well. 1 year/$4 million for Feliz isn't bad for a team that's shedding contracts, but it's mostly treading water, and gives you none of the offense you want out of that corner position. Now that Feliz is off the market, Kouzmanoff is the next "best" thing, and if the Orioles can avoid giving him more than two years -- or have no problem paying their utility infielder five or six million per annum -- then more power to them. Hopefully they can flip him for something useful down the road.

The other route is to put someone there that you intend to move across the diamond once Josh Bell comes up, and who you expect to contribute to the team as a first baseman or a designated hitter. This person you give a long(er) term deal than the guy from the first route, and he's a guy you try to acquire through trade. The Orioles farm system is stocked with arms, and while Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta are more or less untouchable unless someone wants to part with an Adrian Gonzalez or a Miguel Cabrera, guys like David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Brandon Erbe, and Troy Patton are all decent trading chips of variable value. Also available to trade is CF Felix Pie, who is blocked in the outfield and young with major league experience. This mystery player is also a guy who you value more for offense than defense, because if things go as planned, he's either moving to the easiest infield position defensively at first, or he's your DH and his defensive value becomes pretty much irrelevant.

My example pick for the guy you try to acquire is someone I mentioned in the news post earlier today: Kansas City prospect Kila Ka'aihue. Now, you could go out and try to get Billy Butler from the Royals, but he's already starting for the major league squad, is a marketable fan favorite, and he's never played third before in his life. Acquiring him as your 1B/DH of the future would be fine (if you could get him without massively overpaying, which you probably can't), but that's the subject of a whole other article. Ka'aihue, on the other hand, plays third in the minors, is 25 years old, and has put up these lines the last two years in AAA Omaha:

2008: .314/.458/.629 (1.087)
2009: .252/.392/.433 (.825)

Now, at first glance, he regressed a lot in the past year. His BAbip did dip by around thirty points, sure, and his LD% and peripheral hitting stats improved, but anyway you slice it, that's a power outage. But look at the difference between his batting average and on-base percentage -- a .140 IsoD. He has an amazing eye, and the power drop is an outlier over his minor league career, not a trend. Combine that with the Royals keeping him in the minors over a year past when he should have been called up, and he seems like a guy they'd sell low on -- and even if the worst case scenario occurs and for some reason the power doesn't come back, he's still a better offensive presence than Kouzmanoff or Feliz.

There's another version of this story that works with Brandon Woods out of the LAA Angels farm system -- he's another guy who hasn't really gotten a fair shake at the major league level, and could be given a shot at shortstop when Josh Bell comes up. His current UZR for shortstop wouldn't recommend that, but that's based on all of 36 games at the major league level, and really doesn't mean much of anything. The big problem with Woods is that the Angels overvalue their prospects even more than the Yankees and Red Sox do, and to acquire him, the Orioles would have to overpay, which would miss the entire point of trying to get him in the first place.

Obviously, I fall into the "trade for Kila" camp, but with Mike Jacobs exiting Kansas City for parts unknown, Ka'aihue may have finally gotten his shot to make the majors. The O's and Royals have been in talks, and Kansas City is under the impression they need a centerfielder (which begs the question of why they didn't just re-sign Coco Crisp on the cheap, but hey, Royals), but those discussions mostly centered around Alex Gordon and a cursory inquiry into Butler's availability. The Kansas City second baseman Alberto Callaspo merits a look, if only because he somehow managed to lose his job to Chris Getz and is said to be on the trading block, but he's not entirely convincing as a solution at third, hasn't played much short (though his UZR is good for the time spent there), and is blocked by Brian Roberts at second. If they can be had for fair value or less, then the O's should try to get them; any respectable organization would be treating them like the Orioles currently treat a guy like Nolan Reimold, but Dayton Moore is not very good at this whole baseball thing.

Wrapping up a couple loose ends: a guy like Adrian Beltre would be nice to have, but he's going to find a better fit on a club like the Red Sox or maybe even back with the Mariners, since he's going to want to be a starter at third for another couple years. If the Orioles sign him, they could conceivably slide Bell over to first or DH, but that would sap a cost-controlled younger player of a lot of his value in favor of an aging veteran, and usually that's something to avoid. The one thing the Orioles absolutely cannot do next year is plug Ty Wigginton in at third as the starter. Wigginton fell off a cliff at the plate last year (his HR/FB% went from 18.7 to 7.9 in a hitter's park, among other things) and he was a disaster in the field, with a -30.2 UZR/150 at third -- taking him to -16.4 at the position for his career. Somehow I doubt he's going to rebound.

And if all else fails, I bet B.J. Surhoff isn't doing anything. Sure, he never played third base in the majors after the age of 23, but he's versatile. He's Baseball Jesus, after all; he has to be. Who else would ever forgive a team for cutting him in favor of Delino DeShields?

Birdwatch 12/10/2009

2009-12-10T12:37:00.005-05:00

Today is the last day of the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis.

Earlier today in the Rule V Draft, the Orioles did some bookkeeping, selecting LHP Benjamin Snyder from the San Francisco Giants with the third pick and sending him right over to the Texas Rangers as the PTBNL tacked on at the end of the Kevin Millwood deal.

Then they lost RHP Steve Johnson to those same Giants, who took him with the 23rd pick. He most likely will be headed back to the Orioles at some point in the season, as he's never pitched above AA and the Giants would have to keep him on their 25 man roster the entire year.

In the minor league round of the draft, the Orioles took Jose Duran from the Houston system, and lost Rodolfo Cardona to the Pirates.

Roch Kubatko thinks the Orioles are done at the Winter Meetings, but will be sticking around anyway because he remembers being suckered out of breaking the Miguel Tejada signing a couple years back.

Around the League:

Jon Morosi reports that the Seattle Mariners are once again going after San Diego Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez, one of the best (though perhaps no longer underrated) hitters in baseball.

RHP Brandon Lyon gets a three-year, $15 million contract from Ed Wade and the Houston Astros; astute commentators will note that making this type of signing is concerning, because it could easily be a sign of creeping dementia, or more likely, an early symptom of rabies.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have signed C Sidney Crosby to a-- what's that? Bobby Crosby? Well, are they related? ...No? Nothing to see here, then.

RHP Rafael Soriano will be heading to the Tampa Bay Rays from the Atlanta Braves once the medical side of things have been straightened out; Atlanta gets former Pittsburgh reliever Jesse Chavez, who looks like nothing special, and will pay all Soriano's salary. The deal was contingent on Tampa Bay signing Soriano to an extension, which they've done: 1 year, $7 million.

The Philly blogosphere continues to reasonably discuss and/or salivate over the prospect of trading for and extending Toronto ace Roy Halladay, thereby guaranteeing three or four more years of getting edged out of a championship in six by the Yankees.

Former Padres GM Kevin Towers, described by one reporter as "Brian Cashman's BFF" and another as "probably a better pitcher than Josh," will most likely end up with the Yankees as some sort of consultant. Fantastic.

The Royals have released 3B Mike Jacobs and LHP John Bale, possibly creating space for prospect Kila Ka'aihue to make the major league roster. This is the first good move GM Dayton Moore has made in, oh, longer than I care to remember, and while it's very good news for the long-suffering Royals fan-base, I was hoping that perhaps MacPhail would try to get a deal done for him and plug him in at third. Ka'aihue had a "down year" last year, where he set the AAA record for walks in a single season with 102 while suffering a BAbip freeze-out of .277 in 2009 -- down from .300 in 2008 -- even though he saw his LD% and other peripheral hitting numbers get better.

More later if, in fact, there is more later.

Kevin Millwood Is Hungry, Baltimore. Hungry for Your Innings.

2009-12-09T18:58:00.008-05:00

The most important thing to note about the news broken by Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun that the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers have agreed in principle to swap reliever Chris Ray and starter Kevin Millwood is that it is not yet a done deal. Both teams are reportedly reviewing the medical records on their proposed acquisitions, and one or both players may have to pass a physical before the trade is complete.

The second most important thing to note is the number .279.

That was the batting average opposing hitters had against Kevin Millwood in 2009 when they put the ball in play, excluding home runs. It's a statistic called BAbip, and it's generally used as a shorthand for measuring how lucky a pitcher or hitter is -- or isn't.

Let's say Scrapple McKracken, second baseman for the Central City Gold Stockings, is five years into a career as an above-average contact hitter with some pop; he doesn't hit a lot of balls out of the park, but he can scorch a double into right center just fine if a pitcher leaves a fastball up or hangs a curve. His first three years in the league he's a solid .310/.380/.430 hitter; one of the top fifteen starting second basemen offensively, if closer to the bottom of that list than the top. His fourth year, though, McKracken goes nuts: 62 doubles, 16 HR, 4 triples, and something like a .350/.430/.550 line. He gets top honors among all second basemen and takes the Gold Stockings to the pennant, and in the offseason signs a five year extension worth an ungodly amount of money. But then in his fifth year, McKracken falls off the table; he doesn't just revert to the solid bat he was before, but regresses to a .280/.350/.400 hitter. The columnists ask: What happened? And being columnists, they answer their own question: McKracken must be hurt, or has lost his drive since winning a championship, or is taking it easy now that he's gotten paid. They really like to talk about that last one, and they do it so much that the star second baseman does some public talking back, and eventually it reaches the point where McKracken, contract and all, is traded to the Coastal City Silver Knickers in the offseason for a 31-year-old pitcher that won 22 games with a 3.97 ERA.

Never mentioned even once are McKracken's BAbips for those five years with the Gold Stockings: .307, .312, .305, .372, .278. All those balls that magically started finding the gap in his fourth year? His fifth year, they were atom-balls hit right at an outfielder. Those hard grounders up the middle that made the opposing pitcher do impromptu jumping jacks on the mound, and the opposing shortstop get his jersey dirty for nothing as the ball rolled past into center? His fifth year, most of those were easily handled by the middle infielders; a lot of them turned into double plays. He's not hurt, he's not lazy, he's not out of shape; he's just horribly unlucky, one year after being ludicrously fortunate. Of course, McKracken doesn't help his own cause: as the bad luck starts piling up, he consciously changes his mechanics for the first time since he was a kid playing on the farm, trying to speed up his swing -- and he ends up losing his timing, turning some of those smoking line drives into loopers, pop-ups, and fly-outs.

The story has a happy ending, of course. With a fresh start in Coastal City and no one screaming at him about his lack of effort in the newspapers, McKracken, still using the new mechanics that actually lessen the percentage of line drives he hits, seems to resurrect himself from the ashes: .320/.390/.420 in his first two months. As the season goes on, he loosens up, gets his timing back, and gradually goes back to his old swing without even really noticing he's doing it; he ends the season around .320/.390/.440. Now, the Silver Knickers don't make the playoffs because they've got no bullpen, but neither do the Gold Stockings: the ace they traded McKracken for goes 9-15 with a 4.12 ERA, and is shut down in late September with a shoulder injury. And now the columnists want to know what happened to his drive.

So what does all of this mean for Kevin Millwood? Well, pitcher BAbip functions pretty much the same way batter BAbip does in terms of evaluating luck: it's a good shorthand, but it's not the be-all, end-all; it does require context, some of which was hinted at in the above story. For instance, if a hitter's BAbip drops off substantially, there's a good bet some of it's luck -- hard hit balls just seem to be finding gloves more often this year than they did last. But what if those hard hit balls are finding gloves because, well, they're not all that hard hit anymore? For instance, in 2006, Andruw Jones was an Atlanta Brave and still a respectable hitter (.262/.363/.531). In 2008, he was a Los Angeles Dodger, and he was abysmal (.158/.256/.249). In addition to all his other problems at the plate, his BAbip in 2006 was .264; in 2008 it was .229 -- and his career average BAbip before the 2008 season was .276. One might conclude that Jones was suffering a bout of sustained bad luck, but in 2006, 19% of the balls he put into play off his bat were line drives; in 2008, that number was 13.4%. Jones was suffering a power outage of sorts, and we know why; Jones actually had become a lazy piece of shit, and if not for the specific insanity of Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, it would have cost him millions of dollars. It's interesting to note that in limited 2009 action for the Texas Rangers, after being humiliated in the national press and cut by the Dodgers, Jones's LD% rebounded to 16% -- and even though his BAbip stayed roughly the same (.221), his line improved to .214/.323/.459, good for a 100 OPS+ last year. Lesson learned: when you hit for power, it helps your game if you work out every once in awhile.

For a pitcher, generally the biggest influences on his BAbip are going to be the defense behind him, the number of ground balls he induces, and the percentage of batted balls off him that are line drives. He's really got no control over the defense -- ask Jonathan Sanchez of the San Francisco Giants about that -- but the other stuff is a direct reflection of how good a pitcher he is. If his fastball's 88 MPH and a straight line, or if he loops his curves over the middle of the plate, a lot of those are going to be batted, they're going to be line drives, and they're going to more often that not land for hits. If he's got good stuff and commands it well, the hitters will more often than not make bad contact and hit the ball on the ground or pop it up. But then again, extreme groundball pitchers like the Yankees' Chien Ming Wang have learned first hand how feast or famine that can be, and what happens when you induce a bunch of middling grounders that the guys behind you aren't in position to come up with -- in addition to all his injury problems, Wang saw his .287 BAbip against from 2008 turn into an ungodly .397 in limited action. Watching the games was baffling, even for someone who hates the Yankees; everything seemed to find the outfield. Wang's LD% actually went down between 2008 and 2009, from 22.1% to 19.7%. It'll be interesting to see if he can fully recover from his injury problems and get his mechanics back; hopefully he will, and hopefully it'll be while pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals or someone.

With all this in mind, here are the last three years of Kevin Millwood's career:

2007: .348 BAbip, 21.3 LD%, 4.61 xFIP
2008: .366 BAbip, 25.3 LD%, 4.20 xFIP
2009: .279 BAbip, 19.2 LD%, 4.70 xFIP

The last stat, xFIP, is how we correct for defense. The stat normalizes home runs across the league and takes into account strikeouts, HR allowed, walks allowed, and hit-by-pitches, plugs it into a formula, and gives a number that you can treat roughly like an ERA. So according to xFIP, Millwood by himself was more like his 10-14, 5.16 ERA self from 2007 than he was the kind of pitcher we think of when we see an ERA in the mid-3s. Incidentally, xFIP also says he was -- I don't want to say "pretty good," but much better on his own in 2008 than he was in 2007 and 2009, despite getting hit a bit harder.

So Millwood lost almost a hundred points of BAbip against between 2008 and 2009 -- why? It probably wasn't that he pitched better, because his xFIP went up by a worrying margin. Well, what do the stats say about the Texas defense?

2007: -6.8 UZR
2008: -51.7 UZR
2009: 32.5 UZR

Oh. That...that might explain it.

So how was Baltimore's defense last year? Because if Millwood needs a good defense to maintain even the illusion of competent major league pitching, then --

2009: -23.6 UZR

Well then.

The news isn't all bad; the team is mostly young kids, and it's conceivable that if the Orioles acquire a good defensive third baseman, teach Felix Pie to play outfield properly, teach Adam Jones to play deeper in center, and let Nolan Reimold develop, they could have a defense that's only -10 or so. But that's probably the best case scenario.

The hope, then, is that Kevin Millwood gets lucky. Very lucky. The kind of luck that is usually reserved for major motion pictures and straight-up cheating. And then we trade him at the deadline for someone who can play first base in a year or two, and make sure we've already run cackling off to the Prospect Bank by the time Millwood turns back into a pumpkin. I'd say we're hoping for Millwood to be this year's Jarrod Washburn, but last year, the Seattle Mariners had the best defense in the league before trading Washburn to the Tigers, where he helped tank their otherwise promising season along with another disastrous mid-season Tiger acquisition, the Orioles' very own Aubrey Huff. Perhaps that's unfair to Washburn, and by extension, Millwood -- they're out there pitching the best they can, and somewhere along the line, someone did agree to give them money to do so. But you always want that to happen to some other poor fool's team, not your own.

Early reports have the Rangers eating $3 million of Millwood's $12 million salary, so the Orioles have essentially traded Chris Ray, a struggling reliever who was more or less done in Baltimore in all likelihood, for guy who will probably post a 5 ERA in the AL East with our defense behind him. However, I don't have to pay the man; I just get to watch him pitch, and if he pitches like that, he probably won't be around more than a couple months anyway. So I'm not too put out about it.

Because I know that Andy MacPhail is still talking to Erik Bedard's agent. And I know a secret. Would you like to know what it is?

Erik Bedard freaking rules.

For the love of God, no one tell the Mets.

The Joke Is That the Last Time the O's Were Good Was When The Pixies Were Actually Relevant

2009-12-09T14:59:00.012-05:00

The joke is also Ty Wigginton at shortstop.

Welcome to Ripken Is 8! There are precious few Baltimore Orioles blogs on the internet, especially if we exclude the ones currently agitating for General Manager Andy MacPhail to trade for Kevin Kouzmanoff. A number of the good ones out there are news blogs run by reporters for either the Baltimore Sun (Peter Schmuck) or MASN.com (Roch Kubatko, Steve Melewski) that are heavy on news coverage and player updates, and in Kubatko's case, horrific jokes and puns.

That means they're understandably uninterested in either doing hard analysis or making sarcastic, snide, and demeaning throwaway jokes about men with whom they constantly interact and upon whose favor their jobs rely. Those aren't problems we have here at Ripken Is 8, as we are all unemployable trolls living under the Route 40-MLK overpass.

Our purpose is to examine not only the bafflements, missteps, and poor base-running decisions of the Baltimore professional baseball franchise (of which there will be many), but also their occasional quiet triumphs - see Pie, Felix and Reimold, Nolan - and to still be here when with any luck, Andy MacPhail, Dave Trembley, and their ragtag band of cost-controlled misfits surprise the world and finish a season over .500.

But enough about us! Word has come down from on high that MacPhail has just traded reliever Chris Ray to the Texas Rangers for crafty veteran starter Kevin Millwood! First, we're going to call our therapist's emergency line and talk through our PTSD flashbacks to Steve Trachsel. Then, an update.